{"title":"Statistical validation of extended thyroid ultrasound screening among residents of the chornobyl nuclear power plant region.","authors":"Sarah F Cuneio, Bibi M Ismaily, Jonghoon Kang","doi":"10.1007/s00411-025-01170-y","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We performed a regression analysis on previously published thyroid ultrasound data from residents living near the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant (Zabirova et al. 2024). Five standard equations (linear, exponential, logarithmic, power, and sigmoid) were tested to quantify the relationship between age and the incidence of Category “B” thyroid ultrasound findings. While all models yielded similar coefficients of determination (R2) within the studied age range, their extrapolations diverged significantly with increasing age. We show that extending the dataset to include older age groups is necessary to identify the most appropriate predictive model, which would be crucial for projecting long-term thyroid cancer risk in populations exposed to radiation, including those impacted by the Fukushima nuclear incident.</p>","PeriodicalId":21002,"journal":{"name":"Radiation and Environmental Biophysics","volume":" ","pages":"327-329"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4000,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Radiation and Environmental Biophysics","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00411-025-01170-y","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2025/11/19 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"BIOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
We performed a regression analysis on previously published thyroid ultrasound data from residents living near the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant (Zabirova et al. 2024). Five standard equations (linear, exponential, logarithmic, power, and sigmoid) were tested to quantify the relationship between age and the incidence of Category “B” thyroid ultrasound findings. While all models yielded similar coefficients of determination (R2) within the studied age range, their extrapolations diverged significantly with increasing age. We show that extending the dataset to include older age groups is necessary to identify the most appropriate predictive model, which would be crucial for projecting long-term thyroid cancer risk in populations exposed to radiation, including those impacted by the Fukushima nuclear incident.
我们对先前发表的切尔诺贝利核电站附近居民甲状腺超声数据进行了回归分析（Zabirova et al. 2024）。测试了五个标准方程（线性、指数、对数、幂和s型）来量化年龄与B类甲状腺超声发现发生率之间的关系。虽然所有模型在研究的年龄范围内产生相似的决定系数（R2），但它们的外推结果随着年龄的增加而显著偏离。我们表明，将数据集扩展到包括年龄较大的群体是必要的，以确定最合适的预测模型，这对于预测暴露于辐射的人群（包括受福岛核事件影响的人群）的长期甲状腺癌风险至关重要。
期刊介绍：
This journal is devoted to fundamental and applied issues in radiation research and biophysics. The topics may include:
Biophysics of ionizing radiation: radiation physics and chemistry, radiation dosimetry, radiobiology, radioecology, biophysical foundations of medical applications of radiation, and radiation protection.
Biological effects of radiation: experimental or theoretical work on molecular or cellular effects; relevance of biological effects for risk assessment; biological effects of medical applications of radiation; relevance of radiation for biosphere and in space; modelling of ecosystems; modelling of transport processes of substances in biotic systems.
Risk assessment: epidemiological studies of cancer and non-cancer effects; quantification of risk including exposures to radiation and confounding factors
Contributions to these topics may include theoretical-mathematical and experimental material, as well as description of new techniques relevant for the study of these issues. They can range from complex radiobiological phenomena to issues in health physics and environmental protection.
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