Bridging the divide between projected hydroclimatic variability and agricultural ecosystem sustainability through Life Cycle Assessment–Geographic Information System

Abstract

Climate change is expected to decrease crop yields and increase irrigation demands, compounded by worsening hydrological changes. Because these impacts vary across regions, spatially resolved environmental impact assessments are needed to enable proactive and targeted management strategies. To address this need, this study assesses the spatial variations in the environmental sustainability of wheat production in Pakistan by combining Geographic Information Systems with Life Cycle Assessment. Under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, for 2030–39, which projects a potential decline in crop yields, increased irrigation demand, and reduced water table levels. The findings project global warming is expected to rise by 4–12 % relative to the baseline. Other impact categories—including particulate matter formation, acidification, freshwater and marine eutrophication, and land use—are projected to increase within a range of 4–11 %. Fossil resource use is anticipated to increase by 4–13 %, while water consumption is projected to rise by 7–17 % during the same period. For most mid- and end-point impact categories, the northern and southern regions generally fall within the upper range, whereas the central region represents the lower range within the study area. These findings underscore the importance of context-specific adaptation by integrating spatially detailed data into Geographic Information Systems and Life Cycle Assessment tools, thereby enabling targeted interventions that optimize resources, mitigate vulnerabilities, and minimize environmental impacts. Key adaptive strategies include using solar-powered tube wells, partially replacing synthetic fertilizers with organic alternatives, improving irrigation efficiency, and enhancing soil fertility to sustain crop farming in arid and semi-arid regions.