Enabling e-fuels in Middle East and North Africa: Life cycle and techno-economic insights into CO2 capture and utilization

Abstract

This study evaluates the levelized cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensity of CO₂ capture and e-fuel production pathways across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Industrial point-source CO₂ capture shows favorable techno-economic performance, particularly from natural gas and oil processing facilities, with a regional weighted average cost of approximately 51 USD/tCO_2cap, making it a viable source of low-cost CO₂ for e-fuel production. Among MENA countries, Qatar, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates exhibit the lowest capture costs (38–44 USD/tCO_2cap), attributable to high emission volumes and low energy prices. The corresponding GHG emission intensity (EI) of point-source capture averages around 180 kgCO_2eq/tCO_2cap. Regarding e-fuel production, Fischer–Tropsch (FT) fuels are identified as the most expensive and carbon-intensive option, with average production costs exceeding 0.07 USD/MJ and EIs surpassing 30 gCO_2eq/MJ in most MENA countries. In contrast, ammonia synthesis offers the lowest emission intensity, ranging from 7.1 to 21.8 gCO_2eq/MJ depending on the energy source. Although none of the e-fuel pathways are currently cost-competitive with fossil fuels, industrial point-source CO₂ capture in the MENA region presents a promising near-term opportunity. Realizing this potential will require targeted policy measures, including the implementation of carbon pricing, the expansion of renewable energy capacity, and strategic infrastructure investments.