The Future of AI in the GCC Post-NPM Landscape: A Comparative Analysis of Kuwait and the UAE

IF 2.2 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Politics & Policy Pub Date : 2025-11-05 DOI:10.1111/polp.70084

Mohammad Rashed Albous, Bedour Alboloushi, Arnaud Lacheret

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Abstract

Comparative evidence of how two Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states translate artificial intelligence (AI) ambitions into post–New Public Management (post-NPM) outcomes are scarce because most studies focus on Western democracies. To fill this gap, we examine constitutional, collective choice, and operational rules that shape AI uptake in two contrasting GCC members, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Kuwait, and whether they foster citizen centricity, collaborative governance, and public value creation. Anchored in Ostrom's Institutional Analysis and Development framework, the study integrates a most similar/most different systems design with multiple sources: 62 public documents issued between 2018 and 2025, embedded UAE cases (Smart Dubai and MBZUAI), and 39 interviews with officials conducted from Aug 2024 to May 2025. Dual coding and process tracing connect rule configurations to AI performance. Our cross-case analysis identifies four mutually reinforcing mechanisms behind divergent trajectories. In the UAE, concentrated authority, credible sanctions, pro-innovation narratives, and flexible reinvestment rules transform pilots into hundreds of operating services and significant recycled savings. Kuwait's dispersed veto points, exhortative sanctions, cautious discourse, and lapsed AI budgets, by contrast, confine initiatives to pilot mode despite equivalent fiscal resources. These findings refine institutional theory by showing that vertical rule coherence, not wealth, determines AI's public value yield, and temper post-NPM optimism by revealing that efficiency metrics advance societal goals only when backed by enforceable safeguards. To curb ethics washing and test the transferability of these mechanisms beyond the GCC, future research should track rule diffusion over time, experiment with blended legitimacy-efficiency scorecards, and investigate how narrative framing shapes citizen consent for data sharing.

Robles, P. and D. J. Mallinson 2023. “Catching up With AI: Pushing Toward a Cohesive Governance Framework.” Politics & Policy, 51, no. 3: 355–372. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12529.

Veloso Meireles, A. 2024. “Digital Rights in Perspective: The Evolution of the Debate in the Internet Governance Forum.” Politics & Policy 52, no. 1: 12–32. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12571.

Zeng, J., T. Stevens, and Y. Chen. 2017. “China's Solution to Global Cyber Governance: Unpacking the Domestic Discourse of ‘Internet Sovereignty.’” Politics & Policy 45 no. 3: 432–64. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12202.

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人工智能在海湾合作委员会（GCC）后npm格局中的未来：科威特和阿联酋的比较分析

关于两个海湾合作委员会（GCC）国家如何将人工智能（AI）雄心转化为后新公共管理（后npm）成果的比较证据很少，因为大多数研究都集中在西方民主国家。为了填补这一空白，我们研究了阿拉伯联合酋长国（UAE）和科威特这两个截然不同的海湾合作委员会成员国塑造人工智能吸收的宪法、集体选择和操作规则，以及它们是否促进了公民中心、协作治理和公共价值创造。该研究以Ostrom的制度分析与发展框架为基础，将最相似/最不同的系统设计与多个来源整合在一起：2018年至2025年期间发布的62份公共文件，嵌入式阿联酋案例（智能迪拜和MBZUAI），以及2024年8月至2025年5月对39名官员进行的采访。双编码和过程跟踪将规则配置与AI性能联系起来。我们的跨案例分析确定了不同轨迹背后的四种相互加强的机制。在阿联酋，集中的权力、可信的制裁、支持创新的叙述和灵活的再投资规则将试点转变为数百种运营服务和大量的循环储蓄。相比之下，科威特分散的否决权、劝诫性制裁、谨慎的言论和失效的人工智能预算，尽管有同等的财政资源，但仍将倡议限制在试点模式。这些发现完善了制度理论，表明垂直规则的一致性，而不是财富，决定了人工智能的公共价值产出，并通过揭示效率指标只有在可执行的保障措施的支持下才能推进社会目标，缓和了后npm的乐观情绪。为了遏制道德清洗并测试这些机制在海湾合作委员会之外的可转移性，未来的研究应该跟踪规则随时间的扩散，试验混合合法性-效率记分卡，并调查叙事框架如何影响公民对数据共享的同意。马林森，刘建军，刘建军，等。赶上人工智能：推动一个有凝聚力的治理框架。《政治与政策》，第51期，第5期。3: 355-372. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12529。A. 2014。透视数字权利：互联网治理论坛辩论的演变。《政治与政策》第52期，第2期。[1:12 . 32] https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12571。曾杰，陈勇。2017。中国对全球网络治理的解决方案：对“互联网主权”国内话语的解读。’”《政治与政策》45期。3: 432-64. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12202。

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来源期刊

Politics & Policy POLITICAL SCIENCE-

CiteScore

2.50

自引率

23.10%

发文量