Hybrid Deference, Hybrid Chance

Abstract

If you learn about one kind of chance and nothing else, then you should defer to those chances. But what if you learn about more than one kind of chance? In such “hybrid” cases, familiar chance‐credence principles, like the Principal Principle, go silent when they should intuitively speak. This paper proposes a new principle, the Parent Principle, which speaks in these cases and also yields the right verdicts in single‐kind cases. I discuss the implications of the Parent Principle proposal for the priority of fundamental dynamical chance and the autonomy of special science chances, as well as for the view that chance can be entirely characterized by its predictive, credence‐guiding role.