Trends and cyclical patterns of dengue disease in Mexico: A 40-year time series analysis

IF 3.6 3区医学 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

Annals of Epidemiology Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-02 DOI:10.1016/j.annepidem.2025.10.022

Jaime Briseno-Ramirez , Judith Carolina De Arcos-Jiménez , Ana María López-Yáñez , Roberto Miguel Damián-Negrete , Patricia Noemi Vargas-Becerra , Laura Karina Salas-Salazar , Berenice Martínez-Melendres , Ismael Caballero-Quirarte , Pedro Martínez-Ayala

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Purpose

To quantify long-term trends and multi-year cycles in dengue in Mexico (1985–2025) and examine recent serotype–severity patterns.

Methods

We integrated open national surveillance data from the Morbidity Yearbook (1985–2024) and Open Data (2020–2025) using the official estimated-cases definition. Monthly series underwent STL decomposition, Butterworth filtering, periodogram, and autocorrelation analyses. Stationarity was assessed in prespecified windows (1985–2000; 2000–2015; 2015–2025) and by geography (coastal/high-burden vs inland). Serotype distribution and hospitalizations (2020–2025) were summarized among laboratory-confirmed cases and compared across years with χ² tests.

Results

Over 40 years we identified 1715,456 estimated cases; annual burden increased (Mann–Kendall z = 3.25; Sen’s slope ≈ +1275 cases/year). A recurrent multi-year oscillation overlaid the seasonal cycle, with a spectral peak near 5.8 years and an ACF secondary maximum at ∼4.3 years; the signal persisted in coastal/high-burden states and across historical windows. Since 2023, DENV-3 predominated (86 % in 2024; 94.9 % by May-2025) and coincided with higher hospitalization proportions.

Conclusions

Dengue in Mexico shows a significant long-term rise and a reproducible ∼5-year cycle. Cycle-aware baselines, paired with serotype surveillance, could sharpen early-warning thresholds and targeting of vector control.

查看原文本刊更多论文

墨西哥登革热的趋势和周期性模式：40年时间序列分析。

目的：量化墨西哥登革热（1985-2025）的长期趋势和多年周期，并检查最近的血清型严重程度模式。方法：我们使用官方估计病例定义整合了来自发病率年鉴（1985-2024）和开放数据（2020-2025）的开放国家监测数据。每月序列进行STL分解、巴特沃斯滤波、周期图和自相关分析。在预先指定的窗口（1985-2000年；2000-2015年；2015-2025年）和地理（沿海/高负担vs内陆）评估平稳性。总结实验室确诊病例的血清型分布和住院情况（2020-2025年），并用χ 2检验比较各年之间的差异。结果：40多年来，我们确定了1,715,456例估计病例；年负担增加（Mann-Kendall z=3.25; Sen’s斜率≈+1275例/年）。多年振荡复盖在季节周期上，光谱峰值在5.8 A左右，ACF二次最大值在4.3 A左右；该信号在沿海/高负担州持续存在，并跨越历史窗口。自2023年以来，DENV-3占主导地位（2024年为86%，到2025年5月为94.9%），同时住院率较高。结论：登革热在墨西哥呈现显著的长期上升趋势和可重复的5年周期。周期意识基线与血清型监测相结合，可提高早期预警阈值和媒介控制的目标。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Annals of Epidemiology 医学-公共卫生、环境卫生与职业卫生

CiteScore

7.40

自引率

1.80%

发文量

207

审稿时长

59 days

期刊介绍： The journal emphasizes the application of epidemiologic methods to issues that affect the distribution and determinants of human illness in diverse contexts. Its primary focus is on chronic and acute conditions of diverse etiologies and of major importance to clinical medicine, public health, and health care delivery.