Spatial suitability and facility location planning for ammunition depots in Egypt: An integrated GIS-based MCDM approach

Abstract

The strategic siting of ammunition depots is a critical component of national safety and risk mitigation planning. Proper location selection minimizes potential threats to public safety and reduces the socio-economic impact of hazardous events. This study develops a spatial decision support model to identify optimal depot locations in Egypt, a developing country facing complex security and environmental challenges. The methodology integrates Geographic Information Systems (GIS) with Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM), specifically employing the Ordinal Priority Approach (OPA) to derive weights based on expert input. A total of seven evaluation criteria and seventeen spatial constraints were selected and validated by twelve subject-matter experts through structured surveys. The model also includes a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the robustness of outcomes under parameter variability. Results indicate that 44.36 % of Egypt's land area is suitable for ammunition depot siting, with 4.54 % highly suitable, 83.45 % moderately suitable, and 12.01 % marginally suitable. North Sinai and Matrouh governorates emerged as the most favorable regions. Ten potential locations are proposed within the highly suitable areas, offering actionable insights for defense infrastructure planning. The findings support evidence-based policymaking in the defense sector and demonstrate the value of spatial decision tools in optimizing sensitive facility siting within socio-economic and environmental frameworks.