Energy transitions post–Russia–Ukraine war: challenges and policy implications in Germany and Italy

Abstract

In the pursuit of global net-zero emissions by 2050, the Russia–Ukraine War has emerged as a potential disruptor, challenging progress toward this critical objective. We explore the repercussions of the conflict on the European Union’s initial energy transition goals, with a keen focus on electricity generation. Analyzing projections for coal, natural gas, nuclear, hydro, and renewable energy in Germany and Italy over the warring period, the study unveils divergent energy landscapes influenced by the conflict’s effects. Germany’s nuclear phase-out, coupled with the wartime surge in coal use, threatens its ability to meet the 2050 net-zero target. Despite minimal changes in electricity supply and GHG emissions in Italy, policymakers should continue implementing measures to reduce GHG emissions further. Both countries need more ambitious renewable targets. Recommendations for Germany encompass accelerating renewable deployment to offset the recent surge in coal use, whereas those for Italy focus on bolstering hydropower infrastructure, sustaining renewable investments, and strategizing natural gas imports.