Agroforestry as a climate change adaptation strategy: Evidence from Ghana's cocoa sector

IF 6.2 1区农林科学 Q1 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Agricultural Systems Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-25 DOI:10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104519

Marlene Yu Lilin Wätzold , Katharina Krumbiegel , Pascal Tillie , Meike Wollni

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Context

In sub-Saharan Africa, where most farmers rely on rain-fed agriculture, climate change poses serious threats. Agroforestry offers a promising adaptation strategy, with well-documented ecological and economic benefits. Yet, evidence on its role in enhancing household-level resilience to adverse weather events, such as drought, remains limited.

Objective

We assess how decreases in rainfall affect cocoa yield among agroforestry adopters and non-adopters in Ghana and examine whether these effects vary by regional climatic suitability.

Methods

We combine a two-wave panel data set of 365 cocoa-producing households with satellite-based climate data. We use a correlated random effects model to estimate the differential effects of reduced rainfall on yield by agroforestry status. To test for heterogeneity, we re-estimate the model for two subsamples located in climatically suitable and less suitable cocoa-growing regions.

Results and conclusions

We find that on average, agroforestry adopters are less severely affected by reduced rainfall. A one-millimeter decrease in rainfall significantly reduces yield by 2.17 kg/ha for adopters and 2.84 kg/ha for non-adopters. However, when disaggregating between regions, this effect only holds in climatically suitable regions. In less suitable, drier regions, we do not find any significant effects. Our findings suggest that agroforestry could be used as a strategy for adapting to climate change, although more research is needed to understand the conditions under which it would be most effective.

Significance

We are among the first to use household panel data to econometrically assess the effects of reduced rainfall on yield based on agroforestry adoption in the cocoa sector.

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农林业作为气候变化适应战略：来自加纳可可部门的证据

在撒哈拉以南非洲，大多数农民依赖雨养农业，气候变化构成了严重威胁。农林业提供了一种有前景的适应战略，具有充分证明的生态和经济效益。然而，关于其在提高家庭对干旱等不利天气事件的抵御能力方面的作用的证据仍然有限。目的：我们评估降雨减少如何影响加纳农林业采用者和非采用者的可可产量，并检查这些影响是否因区域气候适宜性而异。方法：我们将365个可可种植户的两波面板数据集与基于卫星的气候数据相结合。我们使用一个相关随机效应模型来估计不同农林业状况下降雨量减少对产量的差异影响。为了检验异质性，我们重新估计了位于气候适宜和不太适宜可可种植区的两个亚样本的模型。结果与结论我们发现，平均而言，农林业采用者受降雨减少的影响较小。降雨量每减少一毫米，采用者的产量就会减少2.17公斤/公顷，而非采用者的产量则会减少2.84公斤/公顷。然而，当在不同地区之间分解时，这种效应仅在气候适宜的地区成立。在不太适合的干旱地区，我们没有发现任何显著的影响。我们的研究结果表明，农林业可以作为一种适应气候变化的策略，尽管需要更多的研究来了解它最有效的条件。我们是第一批使用家庭面板数据对可可部门采用农林业的降雨量减少对产量的影响进行计量经济学评估的人之一。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Agricultural Systems 农林科学-农业综合

CiteScore

13.30

自引率

7.60%

发文量

174

审稿时长

30 days

期刊介绍： Agricultural Systems is an international journal that deals with interactions - among the components of agricultural systems, among hierarchical levels of agricultural systems, between agricultural and other land use systems, and between agricultural systems and their natural, social and economic environments. The scope includes the development and application of systems analysis methodologies in the following areas: Systems approaches in the sustainable intensification of agriculture; pathways for sustainable intensification; crop-livestock integration; farm-level resource allocation; quantification of benefits and trade-offs at farm to landscape levels; integrative, participatory and dynamic modelling approaches for qualitative and quantitative assessments of agricultural systems and decision making; The interactions between agricultural and non-agricultural landscapes; the multiple services of agricultural systems; food security and the environment; Global change and adaptation science; transformational adaptations as driven by changes in climate, policy, values and attitudes influencing the design of farming systems; Development and application of farming systems design tools and methods for impact, scenario and case study analysis; managing the complexities of dynamic agricultural systems; innovation systems and multi stakeholder arrangements that support or promote change and (or) inform policy decisions.