Real-World Usage, Emissions, and Costs of Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Truck Fleets.

Abstract

Hydrogen fuel cell electric trucks (FCETs) have been seen as an important decarbonization pathway for heavy-duty trucks, but their real-world operational performance and costs remain uncertain, posing challenges to the widespread adoption. This study presents the largest analysis to date of real-world operational data from 106 heavy-duty FCETs across six application scenarios in China. We examine usage patterns, energy consumption, life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and total cost of ownership (TCO). FCETs are deployed across diverse application scenarios, with most operating on short- to medium-distance routes (average daily mileage <300 km), and some utilizing both hydrogen refueling and grid charging. In Beijing, where hydrogen is primarily sourced from industrial byproducts, FCETs generally exhibit lower life-cycle GHG emissions than diesel and battery-electric trucks, except in low-utilization scenarios. Currently, the unsubsidized TCO of FCETs is 42-152% higher than that of diesel trucks (DTs). However, with purchase, operational, and hydrogen subsidies, the TCO can be 13-36% lower than that of DTs. While FCETs offer strong carbon reduction potential, achieving TCO parity requires alignment with appropriate application scenarios and adequate refueling infrastructure, particularly for long-haul operations by 2030.