Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on the Habitat of the Common Vole, an Important Host of Tularemia in Armenia.

Abstract

Background: Throughout Armenia, a range of climate conditions exist, from dry subtropical to cold alpine, with a topographic diversity from 400 to 4,100 meters above sea level. Climate analysis has suggested what the territory of Armenia may experience in response to climate change. The persistence of tularemia in Armenia, in conjunction with observed ecological trends, indicates that host reservoir distributions are likely to shift, consequently altering the geographic regions at risk of transmission. This study endeavors to evaluate the potential effects of climate change on the habitat suitability and population dynamics of the common vole, the principal reservoir of Francisella tularensis in Armenia. The objectives aim to elucidate prospective changes in disease-endemic areas, thereby informing targeted control strategies to mitigate pathogen dissemination and reduce public health risks associated with tularemia.

Methods: Field and laboratory data from 2000 to 2023 on the common vole and presence of tularemia were compiled from the National Center for Disease Control and Prevention archived records. For spatial and geostatistical analyses, data were compiled from monthly historical temperature and precipitation records from 2000 to 2021 and forecasted data from the WorldClim database. Data were analyzed using a geographic information system.

Results: The comparison of current climate data with predictive models indicates a likely shift in regions with favorable habitats for the common vole. By 2100, areas below 2,000 meters are projected to partially lose suitability, the conditions there could be less suitable for particular animal species. Currently, the common vole's habitat area is above an altitude of 1,400 meters above sea level but by 2100, changes in climate suggest the habitat will shift above an altitude of 2,000 meters above sea level.

Conclusion: The vole distribution shrinks because of the change in habitats attributed to climate change. This dynamic underscores the critical need for more targeted surveillance and integrated collaboration between human and animal health agencies to effectively monitor alterations in the ecology of zoonotic diseases. Such proactive measures are essential to anticipate and prevent future cases of human tularemia, ensuring a coordinated response to emerging public health threats.