Strong Association between Children's Elevated Blood Lead Levels and Lead Service Lines: A Census Tract-Level Analysis for Two Midwest Cities.

IF 11.3 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL

环境科学与技术 Pub Date : 2025-10-21 DOI:10.1021/acs.est.5c06429

Rogelio Tornero-Velez,Nicholas Spalt,Timothy Buckley,Antonios G Poulakos,Stephanie DeFlorio-Barker,Michael Goldberg,Valerie Zartarian,Lindsay Stanek

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Abstract

The contribution of lead service lines (LSLs) to children's blood lead levels (BLLs) has long been suggested but has been difficult to quantify due to limited LSL inventory data. This study examines the association between LSL prevalence and elevated BLLs (EBLLs; ≥5 μg/dL) among children served by the Grand Rapids Water System (GRWS) and the Greater Cincinnati Water Works (GCWW). Address-level LSL records were aggregated to the census tract level and linked with EBLL prevalence data. Strong positive correlations were observed between LSL prevalence and EBLLs in both GCWW (r = 0.71, p < 0.001; n = 195) and GRWS (r = 0.83, p < 0.001; n = 52). Linear and weighted quantile sum (WQS) regression showed that LSL prevalence was a stronger predictor of Pb exposure risk than EPA's Random Forest Models (RFv1 and RFv2) and HUD's Deteriorated Paint Index, though somewhat weaker─but comparable─to Vox's Lead Exposure Risk score. In WQS models including multiple predictors, LSL prevalence received the highest component weight for GCWW and surpassed the threshold of significance for both systems. These findings underscore the independent contribution of LSLs to children's lead exposure and support LSL replacement as an effective public health strategy.

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儿童血铅水平升高和铅服务线之间的强烈联系：两个中西部城市的人口普查水平分析。

长期以来，人们一直认为铅服务线（LSLs）对儿童血铅水平（bll）的贡献，但由于LSLs库存数据有限，难以量化。本研究探讨了在大急流城水系（GRWS）和大辛辛那提水厂（GCWW）服务的儿童中，LSL患病率与高bll （ebll;≥5 μg/dL）之间的关系。地址级别的LSL记录被汇总到人口普查区级别，并与EBLL患病率数据相关联。GCWW （r = 0.71, p < 0.001, n = 195）和GRWS （r = 0.83, p < 0.001, n = 52）中LSL患病率与ebll呈显著正相关。线性和加权分位数和回归（WQS）显示，LSL患病率比EPA的随机森林模型（RFv1和RFv2）和HUD的恶化涂料指数更能预测铅暴露风险，虽然与Vox的铅暴露风险评分相比略弱，但与之相当。在包含多个预测因子的WQS模型中，LSL患病率对GCWW的分量权重最高，并且超过了两个系统的显著性阈值。这些发现强调了LSL对儿童铅暴露的独立贡献，并支持LSL替代作为一项有效的公共卫生战略。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

环境科学与技术环境科学-工程：环境

CiteScore

17.50

自引率

9.60%

发文量

12359

审稿时长

2.8 months

期刊介绍： Environmental Science & Technology (ES&T) is a co-sponsored academic and technical magazine by the Hubei Provincial Environmental Protection Bureau and the Hubei Provincial Academy of Environmental Sciences. Environmental Science & Technology (ES&T) holds the status of Chinese core journals, scientific papers source journals of China, Chinese Science Citation Database source journals, and Chinese Academic Journal Comprehensive Evaluation Database source journals. This publication focuses on the academic field of environmental protection, featuring articles related to environmental protection and technical advancements.