Russia’s New Energy Strategy Could Lead to Withdrawal from the Paris Agreement

Abstract

An analysis of greenhouse gas emissions from Russian energy sector was carried out in accordance with the Energy Strategy until 2050, and they were compared with the target indicators of the Low-Carbon Development Strategy of Russia until 2050. It was shown that fundamental trends in the development of global energy—the energy transition associated with the decarbonization of the global economy—were not taken into account when developing the Energy Strategy. The actual refusal to develop renewable energy sources and the failure to use carbon dioxide capture and storage technologies make it impossible to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality for the national economy by 2060, even taking into account the new increased estimates of carbon absorption by Russian forests. Ignoring the global trend towards abandoning coal fuel, recorded by authoritative national and foreign energy agencies (the Institute for Energy Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the International Energy Agency), has led to inflated estimates of Russian exports of this type of fuel, the world trade of which will decrease several times by 2050. Refined estimates of methane leaks during oil and gas production in Russia correspond in specific values to the indicators of other major producers of oil and gas resources (the United States and Canada), but are approximately two times lower than those obtained from the Earth’s remote sensing data. The main provisions of the two strategic documents on Russia’s development until the middle of the century contradict each other to a certain extent and, therefore, cannot be implemented simultaneously. The result of these contradictions could be Russia’s refusal to fulfill its pledges to decarbonize the economy and its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, which will undoubtedly exacerbate the confrontation with growing global trends.