Does the energy transition lead to carbon neutrality in India by 2070? Investigation under inverted N-shaped environmental Kuznets curve

Abstract

The recent progress report on the Sustainable Development Goals (2023) highlights that despite the current pace of positive and accelerating growth, developing nations are lacking the attainment of SDG7 by 2030 owing to their continuing reliance on traditional energy sources, and India is confronting an analogous situation. Therefore, at COP26, India committed to acquiring 50% of its energy consumption from renewables by 2030 and attaining net zero emissions by 2070. Thus, this study examines whether transition efforts toward renewable energy will lead to carbon neutrality. The study uses MTNARDL to confirm the asymmetric effect of renewable energy on the carbon neutrality target at various quantiles. Furthermore, we also examine how far India’s current economic growth pattern is from the achievement of SDG12 under the cubic specification of the EKC via both conditions (necessary and sufficient) from 1971–2021. The study confirms the asymmetric effect of renewable energy on carbon neutrality target and further reveals that renewable energy is effective for attaining carbon neutrality at lower quantiles. Moreover, the employed model ensures both conditions; hence, we confirm an inverse N-pattern EKC with two real tipping points. Furthermore, the estimated turning points reveal that India is currently experiencing a phase of rising CO₂ emissions. Besides, it is predicted to decline after 2036, when the per capita GDP reaches 3824.4 USD. For the economic growth-CO₂ nexus to exhibit a downwards trend, more stringent environmental policies must be implemented. Furthermore, the promotion of the renewable energy transition could contribute to the achievement of a carbon neutral economy.