{"title":"Spontaneous order in cryptocurrency markets: Crash dynamics and complexity–entropy causality plane","authors":"Huy Quoc Bui , Christophe Schinckus , Hamdan Al-Jaifi , Boon-Keong Lim","doi":"10.1016/j.physa.2025.131050","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the dynamic evolution of spontaneous order in cryptocurrency markets using the Complexity–Entropy Causality Plane (CECP) methodology. By analyzing closing price data from seven major cryptocurrencies between 2017 and 2025, we find that although these assets generally exhibit behavior consistent with a random walk, a clear bifurcation emerges. Newer and less established cryptocurrencies—such as DOGE, ADA, and BNB—display higher complexity and shift toward chaotic regimes, while BTC, XRP, ETH, and TRX maintain lower complexity and greater randomness, suggesting higher informational efficiency. Additionally, the analysis reveals distinct disorder-to-order transitions preceding several major market downturns, indicating that spontaneous order may function as an early warning signal of systemic stress.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20152,"journal":{"name":"Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications","volume":"680 ","pages":"Article 131050"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1000,"publicationDate":"2025-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications","FirstCategoryId":"101","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437125007022","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"PHYSICS, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This study examines the dynamic evolution of spontaneous order in cryptocurrency markets using the Complexity–Entropy Causality Plane (CECP) methodology. By analyzing closing price data from seven major cryptocurrencies between 2017 and 2025, we find that although these assets generally exhibit behavior consistent with a random walk, a clear bifurcation emerges. Newer and less established cryptocurrencies—such as DOGE, ADA, and BNB—display higher complexity and shift toward chaotic regimes, while BTC, XRP, ETH, and TRX maintain lower complexity and greater randomness, suggesting higher informational efficiency. Additionally, the analysis reveals distinct disorder-to-order transitions preceding several major market downturns, indicating that spontaneous order may function as an early warning signal of systemic stress.
期刊介绍:
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
Recognized by the European Physical Society
Physica A publishes research in the field of statistical mechanics and its applications.
Statistical mechanics sets out to explain the behaviour of macroscopic systems by studying the statistical properties of their microscopic constituents.
Applications of the techniques of statistical mechanics are widespread, and include: applications to physical systems such as solids, liquids and gases; applications to chemical and biological systems (colloids, interfaces, complex fluids, polymers and biopolymers, cell physics); and other interdisciplinary applications to for instance biological, economical and sociological systems.