Deforestation, land use, and malaria incidence in the Brazilian Amazon: A spatial analysis

IF 4.6 2区农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Forest Policy and Economics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-16 DOI:10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103653

Luan Marca , Marco Tulio Aniceto Franca , Augusto Mussi Alvim , Evandro Tatim da Silva

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study analyzes the determinants of malaria incidence in the Brazilian Amazon, focusing on patterns of deforestation, agricultural mechanization, and their spatio-temporal dynamics. Using municipal-level panel data (2007–2020) and spatial econometric models, we identify two main findings: Deforestation increases malaria incidence in a non-linear fashion, with significant impacts lasting up to five years and a renewed peak nearly a decade later. Mechanization reduces transmission: A 1 % increase in heavy machinery (e.g., crawler tractors) is associated with a 0.67 % decrease in the incidence rate. A 1 % increase in light machinery (e.g., wheeled tractors) is associated with a 0.37 % decrease, attributable to intensified land use and habitat management. Policy implications may include targeted subsidies for light mechanization leasing in high-incidence municipalities. This strategy could simultaneously curb malaria and deforestation by leveraging degraded pasture areas as expansion zones for cultivation using light machinery, thus eliminating the need for forest invasion.

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巴西亚马逊地区的森林砍伐、土地利用和疟疾发病率：空间分析

本研究分析了巴西亚马逊地区疟疾发病率的决定因素，重点研究了森林砍伐、农业机械化的模式及其时空动态。利用市级面板数据（2007-2020年）和空间计量模型，我们确定了两个主要发现：森林砍伐以非线性方式增加疟疾发病率，其显著影响持续长达五年，并在近十年后再次达到峰值。机械化减少传播：重型机械（如履带式拖拉机）每增加1%，发病率就会降低0.67%。由于集约化的土地利用和生境管理，轻型机械（如轮式拖拉机）每增加1%，与减少0.37%相关。政策影响可能包括对轻型机械化租赁在高发城市提供有针对性的补贴。这一战略可以同时遏制疟疾和森林砍伐，方法是利用退化的牧场作为使用轻型机械耕作的扩展区，从而消除对森林入侵的需要。

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来源期刊

Forest Policy and Economics 农林科学-林学

CiteScore

9.00

自引率

7.50%

发文量

148

审稿时长

21.9 weeks

期刊介绍： Forest Policy and Economics is a leading scientific journal that publishes peer-reviewed policy and economics research relating to forests, forested landscapes, forest-related industries, and other forest-relevant land uses. It also welcomes contributions from other social sciences and humanities perspectives that make clear theoretical, conceptual and methodological contributions to the existing state-of-the-art literature on forests and related land use systems. These disciplines include, but are not limited to, sociology, anthropology, human geography, history, jurisprudence, planning, development studies, and psychology research on forests. Forest Policy and Economics is global in scope and publishes multiple article types of high scientific standard. Acceptance for publication is subject to a double-blind peer-review process.