Foreign direct investment as a long-term capital flow channel: Evidence from Japan

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-30 DOI:10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104158

Naohisa Hirakata , Mitsuru Katagiri

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This paper investigates the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) in accounting for the long-term trend of capital flows under demographic changes. For this purpose, we incorporate horizontal FDI under the proximity-concentration trade-off into a two-country DSGE model and conduct a quantitative analysis using long-term Japanese data for capital flows since the 1960s. The quantitative analysis finds that the transition dynamics solely driven by demographic changes well account for the long-term trend of capital flows and that multinational firms’ endogenous decision on FDI in response to population aging is key to explaining the long-term trend.

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外国直接投资作为长期资本流动渠道：来自日本的证据

本文研究了外国直接投资（FDI）对人口结构变化下资本流动长期趋势的影响。为此，我们将接近-集中权衡下的横向FDI纳入两国DSGE模型，并使用日本自20世纪60年代以来的长期资本流动数据进行定量分析。定量分析发现，仅由人口变化驱动的转型动态很好地解释了资本流动的长期趋势，跨国公司应对人口老龄化的内生FDI决策是解释长期趋势的关键。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of International Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

5.80

自引率

6.10%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of International Economics is intended to serve as the primary outlet for theoretical and empirical research in all areas of international economics. These include, but are not limited to the following: trade patterns, commercial policy; international institutions; exchange rates; open economy macroeconomics; international finance; international factor mobility. The Journal especially encourages the submission of articles which are empirical in nature, or deal with issues of open economy macroeconomics and international finance. Theoretical work submitted to the Journal should be original in its motivation or modelling structure. Empirical analysis should be based on a theoretical framework, and should be capable of replication.