Governing relationships of landslide hazard components and the impact on regional landslide hazard predictions

Abstract

Given the hazard prediction of regional landslides, the conditional features feedback from the hazard definition and the independence assumptions adopted by the hazard calculation present a significant contradiction. Although the Copula-based and definition-based models provide the tool for quantitative hazard, it does not fully capture the conditional information in the hazard definition. This study highlights the governing relationships among landslide hazard components, and further introduces a calibrated model that incorporates landslide time as a variable, and space and magnitude as parameters. Finally, the Heilongjiang area was applied to test and compare the performance between the calibrated and classical models. Results show that the classical model may underestimate the landslide hazard. In detail, the maximum hazard generated by the calibrated model is near 1.00 with the increasing time, larger than that of the classical model, 0.64 for the scenario of V > 100 m³, and 0.26 for the scenario of V > 500 m³. Thus, the calibrated model not only considers the relationship among the landslide time, magnitude, and the space but can reach the upper boundary of the probability with the increasing time. This study provides an exploration to develop a more accurate technique for quantifying the regional landslide hazard.