Dynamic relationship between renewable energy, economic development, and energy security based on SVAR and ARDL-ECM models: Evidence from China

IF 11 1区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Applied Energy Pub Date : 2025-10-18 DOI:10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126886

Taize Yu , Xi Chen , Xiaoran Liu , Hongbo Chen , Shiyi Tang , Lihang Cui , Haijiao Liu , Kunyu Niu , Xiaoshang Deng

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Abstract

The urgency of addressing the climate crisis has intensified the shit from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. China has proactively pursued renewable energy development in alignment with its climate commitments. However, the socio-economic relationships influencing renewable energy adoption remain inconclusive, and existing studies lack a unified framework that integrates renewable energy, economic dynamics, and energy risks. This study employs a SVAR model, supplemented by an ARDL-ECM model to analyze the interplay between renewable energy scale, economic development, crude oil imports, geopolitical risk and international oil price. Results suggest that all variables act as Granger causes to renewable energy development, with bidirectional causality between renewable energy development and crude oil imports. Impulse response analysis reveals that higher crude oil imports and intensifying geopolitical risk trigger energy security concerns, thereby stimulating renewable energy development. In addition, higher crude oil imports also inhibit economic development, reflecting inefficient economic structure and the economic burden caused by trade deficits. Surprisingly, we found that faster economic development is associated with a lower share of renewable energy, suggesting that economic expansion continues to rely heavily on traditional energy sources. A structural break is identified around the 2015 energy reform, after which renewable energy is decoupled from economic growth. This study aims to provide insights for China and similar countries facing foreign oil dependency, facilitating a balance between sustainable energy transitions, economic stability, and energy security in a volatile geopolitical context.

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基于SVAR和ARDL-ECM模型的可再生能源、经济发展与能源安全的动态关系：来自中国的证据

解决气候危机的紧迫性加剧了从化石燃料到可再生能源的问题。中国根据应对气候变化的承诺，积极发展可再生能源。然而，影响可再生能源采用的社会经济关系仍然没有定论，现有的研究缺乏一个统一的框架来整合可再生能源、经济动态和能源风险。本文采用SVAR模型，并辅以ARDL-ECM模型，分析了可再生能源规模与经济发展、原油进口、地缘政治风险和国际油价之间的相互作用。结果表明，各变量均为可再生能源发展的格兰杰原因，可再生能源发展与原油进口之间存在双向因果关系。脉冲响应分析表明，原油进口增加和地缘政治风险加剧引发能源安全担忧，从而刺激可再生能源的发展。此外，原油进口的增加也抑制了经济的发展，反映了低效的经济结构和贸易逆差带来的经济负担。令人惊讶的是，我们发现更快的经济发展与较低的可再生能源份额相关，这表明经济扩张继续严重依赖传统能源。2015年能源改革前后出现了结构性突破，此后可再生能源与经济增长脱钩。本研究旨在为中国和类似的面临外国石油依赖的国家提供见解，在动荡的地缘政治背景下促进可持续能源转型、经济稳定和能源安全之间的平衡。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Applied Energy 工程技术-工程：化工

CiteScore

21.20

自引率

10.70%

发文量

1830

审稿时长

41 days

期刊介绍： Applied Energy serves as a platform for sharing innovations, research, development, and demonstrations in energy conversion, conservation, and sustainable energy systems. The journal covers topics such as optimal energy resource use, environmental pollutant mitigation, and energy process analysis. It welcomes original papers, review articles, technical notes, and letters to the editor. Authors are encouraged to submit manuscripts that bridge the gap between research, development, and implementation. The journal addresses a wide spectrum of topics, including fossil and renewable energy technologies, energy economics, and environmental impacts. Applied Energy also explores modeling and forecasting, conservation strategies, and the social and economic implications of energy policies, including climate change mitigation. It is complemented by the open-access journal Advances in Applied Energy.