The Long-Term Trend of Thermospheric Compositions From Whole Atmospheric Simulation and Satellite Observation

IF 2.9 2区地球科学 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS

Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics Pub Date : 2025-10-15 DOI:10.1029/2025JA034285

Chih-Ting Hsu, Wenbin Wang, Liying Qian, Ercha Aa, Joseph M. Mclnerney, Shun-Rong Zhang, Yongliang Zhang, Anastasia Newheart, Dong Lin

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Abstract

This study examines the long-term trend of column-integrated atomic oxygen to molecular nitrogen ratio, $Σ O / N_{2}$ , in the upper atmosphere and investigates the cause of this long-term trend in $Σ O / N_{2}$ . We first validate the feasibility of using a physics-based model for a long-term climate reanalysis by applying a model-data comparison between 2002 and 2018. $Σ O / N_{2}$ simulated by NSF NCAR's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) with thermosphere and ionosphere extension (WACCM-X) and measured by Global Ultraviolet Imager (GUVI) aboard the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) mission is used to determine the long-term trend of $Σ O / N_{2}$ from 2002 to 2018 and validate the model result. The model and data show good agreement after removing the impact of solar irradiance and geomagnetic activity using a least-squares fitting method, revealing a decreasing trend of $Σ O / N_{2}$ of about $- 0.54 %$ per decade relative to the $Σ O / N_{2}$ in 2018 in the model and about $- 0.45 %$ per decade in data along the satellite orbit during the period between 2002 and 2018. A decreasing trend of global $Σ O / N_{2}$ of about $- 0.70 %$ per decade is found in the model between 1960 and 2018. After that, four WACCM-X long-term simulations are performed from 1960 to 2018 to identify the cause of the decreasing trend of $Σ O / N_{2}$ . The results show that this decreasing trend is mainly caused by the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations.

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全大气模拟和卫星观测的热层组成的长期趋势

本研究考察了柱积分原子氧/分子氮比的长期趋势，Σ O/ N 2 ${\Sigma}O/{N}_{2}$，并在Σ O/ n2 ${\Sigma}O/{N}_{2}$中研究这种长期趋势的原因。我们首先通过对2002年至2018年的模型数据进行比较，验证了使用基于物理的模型进行长期气候再分析的可行性。Σ O/ N 2 ${\Sigma}O/{N}_{2}$由美国国家科学基金会NCAR的全大气群落气候模式（WACCM）与热层和电离层扩展（WACCM- x）模拟，并由全球紫外成像仪（GUVI）在热层电离层和中层能量动力学（TIMED）任务上测量Σ O/ N 2 ${\Sigma}O/{N}_{2}$从2002年到2018年验证模型结果。利用最小二乘拟合方法去除太阳辐照度和地磁活动的影响后，模型与数据吻合较好。与Σ相比，Σ O/ N 2 ${\Sigma}O/{N}_{2}$每10年下降约- 0.54% ${-}0.54\%$模型中2018年的O/ N 2 ${\Sigma}O/{N}_{2}$， 2002年至2018年期间沿卫星轨道的数据每十年约为- 0.45% ${-}0.45\%$。1960 ~ 2018年，全球Σ O/ N 2 ${\Sigma}O/{N}_{2}$的下降趋势约为- 0.70% ${-}0.70\%$ / 10年。随后，对1960 ~ 2018年的4次WACCM-X长期模拟进行了分析，确定了Σ O/ N 2 ${\Sigma}O/{N}_{2}$下降趋势的原因。结果表明，这种下降趋势主要是由温室气体浓度的增加引起的。

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来源期刊

Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics Earth and Planetary Sciences-Geophysics

CiteScore

5.30

自引率

35.70%

发文量

570