The urban forest at risk: unveiling windstorm-induced tree fall patterns through spatial and machine learning analyses in a medium-large city in Southern Brazil
Diogo Francisco Rossoni, Ícaro da Costa Francisco, Clayton Cavalcante da Broi Junior, Victória Sotti Batista, Rafaela Lucca, Maurício Bonesso Sampaio
{"title":"The urban forest at risk: unveiling windstorm-induced tree fall patterns through spatial and machine learning analyses in a medium-large city in Southern Brazil","authors":"Diogo Francisco Rossoni, Ícaro da Costa Francisco, Clayton Cavalcante da Broi Junior, Victória Sotti Batista, Rafaela Lucca, Maurício Bonesso Sampaio","doi":"10.1007/s00468-025-02678-y","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Key message</h3><p>Our study reveals spatial patterns and meteorological drivers of urban tree falls, enabling enhanced urban tree risk management.</p><h3>Abstract</h3><p>Urban forestry plays a crucial role in maintaining the safety and resilience of urban environments yet understanding the spatial dynamics and underlying factors of tree fall incidents remains a complex challenge. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of tree fall incidents in Maringá, Paraná, Brazil, from 2015 to 2021, using kernel density estimation, inhomogeneous L function analysis, and regression tree modeling. Our findings reveal intriguing spatial patterns, with higher concentrations of incidents in the northern and northeastern regions of the city. Moreover, we identified dynamic changes in spatial distributions over time, emphasizing the need for proactive urban planning and risk management strategies. Regression tree analysis highlighted meteorological factors as significant contributors to tree falls, providing actionable insights for risk mitigation efforts. Overall, our study contributes to a better understanding of the spatial dynamics of tree fall incidents and advocates for standardized data collection methods and the development of tools to enhance urban forestry management and promote safer urban environments.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":805,"journal":{"name":"Trees","volume":"39 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1000,"publicationDate":"2025-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Trees","FirstCategoryId":"2","ListUrlMain":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00468-025-02678-y","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"FORESTRY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Key message
Our study reveals spatial patterns and meteorological drivers of urban tree falls, enabling enhanced urban tree risk management.
Abstract
Urban forestry plays a crucial role in maintaining the safety and resilience of urban environments yet understanding the spatial dynamics and underlying factors of tree fall incidents remains a complex challenge. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of tree fall incidents in Maringá, Paraná, Brazil, from 2015 to 2021, using kernel density estimation, inhomogeneous L function analysis, and regression tree modeling. Our findings reveal intriguing spatial patterns, with higher concentrations of incidents in the northern and northeastern regions of the city. Moreover, we identified dynamic changes in spatial distributions over time, emphasizing the need for proactive urban planning and risk management strategies. Regression tree analysis highlighted meteorological factors as significant contributors to tree falls, providing actionable insights for risk mitigation efforts. Overall, our study contributes to a better understanding of the spatial dynamics of tree fall incidents and advocates for standardized data collection methods and the development of tools to enhance urban forestry management and promote safer urban environments.
期刊介绍：
Trees - Structure and Function publishes original articles on the physiology, biochemistry, functional anatomy, structure and ecology of trees and other woody plants. Also presented are articles concerned with pathology and technological problems, when they contribute to the basic understanding of structure and function of trees. In addition to original articles and short communications, the journal publishes reviews on selected topics concerning the structure and function of trees.
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号
