[Measurement of Economic Effects of Driving Factors of Carbon Emission in the Yangtze River Delta Region].

Abstract

Measuring the economic effects of the drivers of carbon emissions is an important element in achieving economic development goals and the "dual carbon" goals， and improving the measurement methods has significant research significance. This study selected three provinces and one city in the Yangtze River Delta Region as the research object. Firstly， the LMDI method was used to assess the net impact of various driving factors on carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2004 to 2023. Then， the static CGE model was used to construct the macroeconomic system of the Yangtze River Delta， and the LMDI research results were taken into the CGE model. Finally， the economic effects of the carbon intensity factor， population size factor， and energy saving potential factor were calculated according to the actual changes of relevant carbon emission driving factors in the Yangtze River Delta Region. The results of the study follow： ① The energy saving potential factor has the greatest inhibitory effect on the growth of carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta Region， inhibiting the increase in carbon emissions in Jiangsu， Zhejiang， Shanghai， and Anhui by approximately 156 million t， 89 million t， 24 million t， and 115 million t from 2004 to 2023， respectively. ② There are significant differences in the levels and directions of the impact of carbon emission drivers on different economic development indicators and sector outputs. ③ The impact of the carbon intensity factor on the economic development and sector outputs in the Yangtze River Delta Region from 2017 is more pronounced than that of the population size factor and energy saving potential factor. The changes in sector outputs caused by the carbon intensity factor account for more than 60% of the effect of the three carbon emission drivers. The results of this study are of great significance for an effective response to global climate change.