[Forecasting the Scrap Volumes and Recyclable Resource Potentials of China's Residential Photovoltaics from a Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity Perspective].

Abstract

Research on the scrap volume and recyclable resource potential of residential photovoltaic （PV） systems is directly related to constructing a circular economy model for the PV industry and informs future cost-benefit analysis. It also significantly impacts environmental protection and sustainable development across residential sectors in different regions. This study is crucial for developing effective recycling policies and promoting resource circularity and also provides technical support for the strategic construction and layout of PV recycling and disposal capacities across regions. Given that the lifespan and installed capacity of residential PV systems vary regionally due to rooftop space limitations， this study utilizes material flow and spatiotemporal heterogeneity analyses to forecast future scrap volumes and recycling potentials for residential PV systems nationwide and by region. The results indicate that China's cumulative installed capacity for residential PV will reach 467.33 GW by 2050. Under conservative， baseline， and high-growth scenarios， and based on early and conventional failure modes， cumulative scrap volume is highest under the high-growth scenario， reaching 705.11 GW and 627.80 GW， respectively， approximately 200% higher than in the conservative scenario. In the conventional failure scenario， the total recyclable resource content from decommissioned components is 2.027 million tons， which is 49.8% higher than the content of the conservative scenario and 45.17% lower than the content of the high-growth scenario. From a spatiotemporal perspective， provinces with early development and proactive policy implementation， such as Shandong and Hebei， are expected to reach scrap peaks around 2042. Recycling policies and system improvements should be prioritized in these areas. Although Guangdong， Zhejiang， and Jiangsu have later scrap peaks， they still require early planning for recycling funds and technological innovation. Regions such as Sichuan， Guizhou， and Chongqing， despite lower scrap volumes， must not overlook the handling of toxic metals. It is recommended that the operation and maintenance management of residential PV systems be further strengthened by enhancing maintenance quality， incorporating intelligent management technologies， and implementing replacement programs. Additionally， regional differences should be considered to plan recycling and disposal capacities for decommissioned PV modules strategically.