Multi-Phase Contrast-Enhanced CT Clinical-Radiomics Model for Predicting Prognosis of Extrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma After Surgery: A Single-Center Retrospective Study

Abstract

Objective

To develop and validate a preoperative clinical-radiomics model for predicting overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) in patients with extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (eCCA) undergoing radical resection.

Methods

In this retrospective study, consecutive patients with pathologically-confirmed eCCA who underwent radical resection at our institution from 2015 to 2022 were included. The patients were divided into a training cohort and a validation cohort according to the chronological order of their CT examinations. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-Cox regression was employed to select predictive radiomic features and clinical variables. The selected features and variables were incorporated into a Cox regression model. Model performance for 1-year OS and DFS prediction was assessed using calibration curves, area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and concordance index (C-index).

Results

This study included 123 patients (mean age 64.0 ± 8.4 years, 85 males/38 females), with 86 in the training cohort and 37 in the validation cohort. The OS-predicting model included four clinical variables and four radiomic features. It achieved a training cohort AUC of 0.858 (C-index = 0.800) and a validation cohort AUC of 0.649 (C-index = 0.605). The DFS-predicting model included four clinical variables and four other radiomic features. It achieved a training cohort AUC of 0.830 (C-index = 0.760) and a validation cohort AUC of 0.717 (C-index = 0.616).

Conclusion

The preoperative clinical-radiomics models show promise as a tool for predicting 1-year OS and DFS in eCCA patients after radical surgery.