Comprehensive Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change and Human Activities on the Distribution of Five Fritillaria Species Using the Optimized Maxent Model

IF 2.3 2区生物学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecology and Evolution Pub Date : 2025-10-13 DOI:10.1002/ece3.72305

Yuanyuan Li, Qinghe Wang, Rong Ding, Xiaofen Liu, Sijing Liu, Jing Bai, Shuqi Niu, Jinlin Guo

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Abstract

With climate change and the influence of human activities, species are likely to migrate or even go extinct. Five Fritillaria species, a well-known traditional Chinese medicinal plant, are rarer due to overharvesting. This study employed the Maxent model to identify suitable areas for the plant, determine key environmental factors, and project future shifts under three climate change scenarios. The analysis showed F. przewalskii and F. delavayi might migrate to higher elevations, while F. taipaiensis was expected to move to lower elevations. There were differences in the dominant environmental factors among different origins: F. cirrhosa (elevation, bio7, bio9, bio12, hfp); F. unibracteata (elevation, bio4, bio15, bio19, hfp); F. przewalskii (elevation, bio4, bio11, bio15, hfp); F. delavayi (elevation, bio3, bio18, hfp); F. taipaiensis (bio2, bio3, bio4, bio11, hfp). Under the SSP585 scenario, the suitable areas of F. cirrhosa, F. przewalskii, and F. taipaiensis were contracting, while those of F. unibracteata and F. delavayi were rising. Also, the centroids of F. cirrhosa and F. przewalskii shifted slightly northeastward, F. unibracteata's shifted southward, and F. delavayi and F. taipaiensis's shifted northwestward. These findings provide a foundation for the conservation, sustainable management, and cultivation of five Fritillaria species.

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气候变化和人类活动对五种贝母分布影响的优化Maxent模型综合分析

随着气候变化和人类活动的影响，物种可能会迁移甚至灭绝。贝母是一种著名的传统药用植物，由于过度采伐，贝母的种类越来越少。本研究采用Maxent模型来确定适合植物生长的区域，确定关键环境因子，并在三种气候变化情景下预测未来的变化。分析结果表明，普氏白僵菌可能会向高海拔地区迁移，而太白僵菌可能会向低海拔地区迁移。不同来源的主要环境因素存在差异：肝硬化F.（升高、bio7、bio9、bio12、hfp）；F. unbracteata (elevation, bio4, bio15, bio19, hfp)；F. przewalskii (elevation, bio4, bio11, bio15, hfp)；F. delavayi (elevation, bio3, bio18, hfp)；F. taipaiensis （bio2, bio3, bio4, bio11, hfp）。SSP585情景下，肝硬化云芝、普氏华氏云芝和太白云芝的适宜面积呈缩小趋势，而独片云芝和delavayi的适宜面积呈上升趋势。此外，硬结云芝和普氏云芝的质心向东北方向移动，独角云芝的质心向南移动，而德拉瓦云芝和台北云芝的质心向西北方向移动。这些发现为贝母的保护、可持续管理和栽培提供了依据。

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来源期刊

Ecology and Evolution ECOLOGY-

CiteScore

4.40

自引率

3.80%

发文量

1027

审稿时长

3-6 weeks

期刊介绍： Ecology and Evolution is the peer reviewed journal for rapid dissemination of research in all areas of ecology, evolution and conservation science. The journal gives priority to quality research reports, theoretical or empirical, that develop our understanding of organisms and their diversity, interactions between them, and the natural environment. Ecology and Evolution gives prompt and equal consideration to papers reporting theoretical, experimental, applied and descriptive work in terrestrial and aquatic environments. The journal will consider submissions across taxa in areas including but not limited to micro and macro ecological and evolutionary processes, characteristics of and interactions between individuals, populations, communities and the environment, physiological responses to environmental change, population genetics and phylogenetics, relatedness and kin selection, life histories, systematics and taxonomy, conservation genetics, extinction, speciation, adaption, behaviour, biodiversity, species abundance, macroecology, population and ecosystem dynamics, and conservation policy.