Desegregating through densification? Potential and limitations in the case of Oslo

Abstract

Urban densification is widely regarded as a key strategy for promoting sustainability and fostering social diversity in cities. While it has often been advocated as a means to enhance social mix, research indicates that, without effective housing policies and regulations, it can instead drive up rents and property prices, leading to displacement and exclusionary pressures. In Oslo, the case study of this investigation, densification has been the primary development strategy, particularly in the historically less affluent eastern districts, where former industrial sites have been transformed into residential areas. We argue that when densification occurs within a fully deregulated housing system and is primarily driven by private developers and speculative investment, it tends to create conditions that facilitate exclusionary dynamics. However, the possible social implications can be different depending on the location of densification interventions. By analyzing census-tract level data on tenure structure, household typology, country background, education level, age structure, and income, we explore whether newly developed densification areas in Oslo exhibit a more homogeneous or socially mixed profile across the eastern and western parts of the city. Findings suggest that while densification areas in the east side of the city support gentrification dynamics, those in the west seem to rather have de-segregating effects.