Role of anthropogenic mineral circularity in addressing dual challenges of resource supply and waste management in global photovoltaic development.

IF 15.7 1区综合性期刊 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES

Nature Communications Pub Date : 2025-10-13 DOI:10.1038/s41467-025-64145-z

Xuehong Yuan,Qingming Song,Ya Liu,Mingxing Huang,Yuting Wang,Zhenming Xu

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Abstract

Anthropogenic mineral circularity offers a synergistic solution to dual challenges of resource supply and waste management in photovoltaic development. However, the global supply potential of secondary materials remains underexplored, limiting future informed decision-making. Here, we present the global analysis of secondary material supply potential in five photovoltaic technologies under different energy scenarios, using the tailored modeling framework. Results show that cumulative material demand and waste generation are projected to reach 705-1879 megatonnes and 238-529 megatonnes, respectively, by 2050. With the circularity strategy, the annual supply ratio of secondary materials is expected to increase from 3.3% in 2020 to 43.4%-101.6% by 2050, with silver and tellurium potentially in surplus. Additionally, circularity brings 6.6%-55.0% decrease in metal criticality, 321-700 billion US Dollars economic potential, and 697.0-1546.1 megatonnes CO2-equivalent emissions reductions. This study quantifies anthropogenic mineral circularity's role in photovoltaic development and provides insights for energy transition.

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人为矿物循环在解决全球光伏发展中资源供应和废物管理的双重挑战中的作用。

人为的矿物循环为光伏开发中资源供应和废物管理的双重挑战提供了协同解决方案。然而，二次材料的全球供应潜力仍未得到充分开发，这限制了未来明智的决策。在此，我们使用量身定制的建模框架，对五种光伏技术在不同能源情景下的二次材料供应潜力进行了全球分析。结果表明，到2050年，预计累计材料需求和废物产生量将分别达到705-1879兆吨和238-529兆吨。随着循环战略的实施，预计到2050年，二次材料的年供应比例将从2020年的3.3%增加到43.4%-101.6%，其中银和碲可能出现过剩。此外，循环带来的金属临界性降低6.6%-55.0%，经济潜力达3221 - 7000亿美元，二氧化碳当量排放量减少6970 -1546.1亿吨。本研究量化了人为矿物循环在光伏发展中的作用，并为能源转型提供了见解。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Nature Communications Biological Science Disciplines-

CiteScore

24.90

自引率

2.40%

发文量

6928

审稿时长

3.7 months

期刊介绍： Nature Communications, an open-access journal, publishes high-quality research spanning all areas of the natural sciences. Papers featured in the journal showcase significant advances relevant to specialists in each respective field. With a 2-year impact factor of 16.6 (2022) and a median time of 8 days from submission to the first editorial decision, Nature Communications is committed to rapid dissemination of research findings. As a multidisciplinary journal, it welcomes contributions from biological, health, physical, chemical, Earth, social, mathematical, applied, and engineering sciences, aiming to highlight important breakthroughs within each domain.