Climate change reshapes rice geographical indications in China: Opportunities and challenges of rural revitalization

Abstract

In the context of global climate change and evolving market demands, this study systematically explores the pivotal role of Geographical Indication (GI) agricultural products in rural revitalization. Utilizing an optimized Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model, we comprehensively assessed the primary environmental factors influencing the cultivation of rice GIs and simulated their potential distribution patterns in China under current and projected future climate conditions. Our findings reveal that elevation, effective cumulative temperature, precipitation, and soil organic matter are the dominant environmental determinants of rice GI distribution. Currently, 52.10 % of single-season rice GIs and 54.85 % of double-season rice GIs suitable planting areas are predominantly distributed across the Sanjiang Plain and Yangtze River Basin. Projections for the late 21st century indicate a northeastward expansion of potential planting areas for single-season rice GIs, increasing from 62.47 % to 65.02 % of suitable planting areas across scenarios ranging from SSP1-2.6 to SSP5-8.5. However, high suitability regions are projected to decrease significantly from 25.92 % to 13.13 %. Conversely, double-season rice GIs show relatively modest expansion in potentially suitable areas, but a substantial increase in high suitability areas, reaching 50.29 % under the SSP3-7.0 scenario, with a more stable overall spatial pattern. Despite the increase in high suitability, fluctuations in low and medium suitability present potential risks for rice cultivation in the Sanjiang Plain and North China Plain. Future strategies to mitigate climate change impacts on rice planting adaptation should include adjustments to sowing periods, varietal innovation, and rationalized fertilizer application. These adaptive strategies are not only crucial for promoting low-carbon agriculture in China but also instrumental in advancing rural revitalization strategies and fostering the coordinated progression of sustainable agricultural development and socioeconomic growth.