Clean development pathway for China's iron and steel industry 2020–2035: Carbon dioxide, air pollutant emissions and health benefits

Abstract

The clean development of China's the iron and steel industry (ISI) can improve air quality and mitigate climate change. This study uses an integrated model to systematically examine the impact of ISI clean development on emissions, PM_2.5 exposure and health benefits 2020–2035 for three regions, two steel production scenarios and key drivers (electric arc furnace steelmaking technology, hydrogen metallurgy technology, energy saving technologies, ultra-low emission, and CCUS). The results show that national CO₂ emissions from ISI had peaked at 1644 Tg in 2020, and are projected to decrease by 42.1 %–49.7 % over the period 2020–2035. Specifically, CO₂ reduction rates are expected to range between 44.2 % and 51.6 % in region A, 44.3 %–51.7 % in region B and 36.3 %–44.6 % in region C. Additionally, ISI emissions of SO₂, NO_x, and PM_2.5 are estimated to decrease by 39.2 %–46.3 %, 41.6 %–48.2 % and 54.4 %–60.2 %, respectively. Approximately 22,000−26,000 PM_2.5-related deaths will be avoided. However, the distribution of these health benefits is uneven across regions, with region C projected to see the greatest reduction in PM_2.5-related excess deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. Driver analysis indicates that steel demand, energy saving, and electric arc furnace steelmaking technologies will be the primary contributors to CO₂ reductions in the short term. For health benefits, steel demand, ultra-low emission, and electric arc furnace steelmaking are identified as the primary drivers, contributing 34.4 %–43.4 %, 29.2 %–33.9 %, and 19.7 %–23.1 %, respectively, to the decrease in national PM_2.5-related deaths. Overall, crude steel demand is the main driver of health benefits, and policy controls can contribute to co-benefits, especially end-of-pipe emission control measures.