Using period analysis for timely assessment and prediction of 5-year relative survival for childhood cancer patients from Taizhou, Eastern China.

Abstract

Timely population-based cancer registry data with accurate 5-year relative survival (RS) estimates is essential for childhood cancer control. This study analyzed survival patterns and projected future trends using data from nine cancer registries in Taizhou, Eastern China, covering patients under 15 years diagnosed during 2004-2023. Period analysis methods were employed to calculate overall and stratified 5-year RS by sex, region, age at diagnosis, and cancer types, with model-based projections for 2024-2028. The 2019-2023 overall 5-year RS reached 80.0%, showing comparable rates between females (80.8%) and males (79.6%) but significant urban-rural disparity (urban: 83.9% vs. rural: 78.6%). Survival rates followed an age-specific pattern, peaking at 84.8% in 5- to 9-year-olds before decreasing to 75.9% in 10- to 14-year-olds. Projections estimate an overall 5-year RS of 82.2% for 2024-2028. As China's first application of period analysis in childhood cancer surveillance, this study provides crucial baseline data demonstrating 80.0% 5-year RS during 2019-2023 and predicting 82.2% for 2024-2028 in Taizhou. These findings provide essential data for evaluating the effectiveness of childhood cancer early detection and screening initiatives in Eastern China. The methodology establishes a framework for ongoing survival monitoring to inform pediatric cancer control strategies.