Measurement and influencing factors of China’s energy transition level from the perspective of the low-carbon and resilience two-dimensional game

Abstract

In light of rising global climate change and severe weather, a low-carbon emission reduction strategy that includes energy system resilience is crucial. Game theory is used to study resilience and low-carbon options. This paper analyzes panel data from 30 provinces from 2013 to 2022 using time-weighted rough set theory, game-theoretic combinatorial empowerment, and uncertainty models to evaluate China’s energy transition. To investigate technological, organizational, and environmental factors causing regional differences, kernel density estimation and the Dagum Gini coefficient were used, followed by a regionally and chronologically weighted regression model. Key findings: China’s energy transformation is “increase-decrease-increase again” with “high levels in the East and low levels in the West” for low-carbon efforts and “greater resilience in the South compared to the North”. Absolute levels rise, but social restrictions limit low-carbon features and resilience increases systemic vulnerabilities. Green technology dominates the technological, organizational, and environmental framework, whereas industrial structure negatively impacts regional heterogeneity and nonlinear temporal dynamics. Beyond single evaluations, this study addresses multi-objective energy transition concerns and informs regional multi-energy systems and institutional innovation.