Climate change may impair the transition to a fully renewable energy system: A German case study

Abstract

Renewable sources are vulnerable to climate change. Despite this, the combined impact of climate change and the expansion of renewables in higher spatiotemporal details have not been thoroughly analyzed. In this manuscript, using the state-of-the-art model coupling framework, we address the following research question: How can wind energy and bioenergy be affected regionally considering weather and climate variability in Germany and its possible impact on the neighboring countries? To answer this, we link spatially, temporally, and technologically detailed power and energy optimization models with a physical simulation model for wind power production, taking into account climate and weather scenarios. Our results indicate that significant reductions in biomass production due to climate change may profoundly compromise reaching climate targets. It also damages the resilience of energy systems by decreasing the capacity of flexible bioenergy, thereby increasing vulnerability to other disruptions, such as fluctuations in renewable electricity supply. Our finding suggests that southern German states may require electricity imports from neighboring countries, emphasizing that extreme climate events in other parts of Europe can potentially further reduce resilience.