Fueling the future: A comparative analysis of sustainable aviation fuel pathways

Abstract

As the sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) have been increasingly utilized in the aviation industry, the comparison among the existing types of SAF in terms of their production costs and the efficacy of mitigating emissions has become important. This investigation aims to assess the trade-off between cost increases and emission reductions throughout the SAF lifecycle. A stepwise multiple linear regression model is utilized to forecast the production costs associated with 29 distinct SAF production pathways. Furthermore, an all-encompassing model has been developed to determine the costs associated with carbon mitigation over time. The findings demonstrate that the Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) pathway is most cost-effective, with the lowest production cost pegged at $1.45 per liter. In contrast, the carbon mitigation cost for the Fischer-Tropsch (FT) pathway is the most favorable, calculated at $459 per ton of CO2 equivalent. This study extends current cost analyses to the prediction of future production expenses, highlighting the significance of temporal variations in mitigation costs. The findings provide customized recommendations, such as for developing SAF with different pathways with uneven priorities.