Increasing flood hazards threaten metro system resilience under climate and demographic changes

IF 12 1区工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY

Sustainable Cities and Society Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI:10.1016/j.scs.2025.106890

Chen Liang, Mingfu Guan

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Abstract

Intensification of short-duration rainfall poses an increasing threat to urban metro systems, necessitating a thorough understanding of existing infrastructure's resistance in a warmer climate. This study systematically examines how future rainfall extremes and societal changes jointly affect metro system performance, using Hong Kong as a case study. We simulated city-scale flood inundation under the current climate baseline and three future representative emission scenarios using a grid-based flood hydrodynamic model. The study quantifies and characterizes flood hazard and risk, as well as metro performance curves at both station and line scales through integrating the simulated flood dynamics with demographic projections and infrastructure characteristics. Results show a substantial increase in flood hazard in low-lying coastal urban areas from the near to the far future under the highest emission scenario, while risk profiles remain comparatively stable. Short-duration rainfall intensity dominates the deterioration rates of metro functionality, while residual functionality and recovery capacity are primarily influenced by long-duration cumulative volume. Among performance-based resilience metrics, robustness emerges as the decisive factor influencing other components. High emissions in the far future present the most challenging scenario for metro system resilience, while other emission scenarios show more manageable impacts. Compared to demographic changes, climate-induced rainfall intensification exerts more significant influence on metro system resilience, particularly through cumulative rainfall volume. This research contributes a transferable framework for assessing infrastructure resilience under combined climate and societal stressors. By comparing their impacts, the study yields generalizable insights to guide adaptation of critical urban infrastructure, supporting robust planning for a complex future.

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日益增加的洪水灾害威胁着气候和人口变化下地铁系统的恢复能力

短时降雨的加剧对城市地铁系统构成了越来越大的威胁，因此有必要彻底了解现有基础设施在变暖气候下的抵抗能力。本研究以香港为个案，系统探讨未来极端降雨和社会变化如何共同影响地铁系统的表现。基于网格的洪水水动力模型，模拟了当前气候基线下城市尺度的洪水淹没和未来三种具有代表性的排放情景。该研究通过将模拟洪水动态与人口预测和基础设施特征相结合，量化和表征洪水危害和风险，以及车站和线路尺度上的地铁性能曲线。结果表明：在最高排放情景下，沿海低洼地区的洪涝灾害从近期到远期显著增加，但风险分布保持相对稳定；短时降雨强度对地铁功能退化率起主导作用，而长时累积容积主要影响剩余功能和恢复能力。在基于绩效的弹性指标中，鲁棒性成为影响其他成分的决定性因素。在遥远的未来，高排放是对地铁系统弹性最具挑战性的情景，而其他排放情景则显示出更可控的影响。与人口变化相比，气候引起的降雨强化对地铁系统恢复力的影响更为显著，尤其是通过累积降雨量的影响。这项研究为评估气候和社会双重压力下的基础设施复原力提供了一个可转移的框架。通过比较它们的影响，该研究得出了可概括的见解，以指导关键城市基础设施的适应，为复杂的未来提供有力的规划。

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来源期刊

Sustainable Cities and Society Social Sciences-Geography, Planning and Development

CiteScore

22.00

自引率

13.70%

发文量

810

审稿时长

27 days

期刊介绍： Sustainable Cities and Society (SCS) is an international journal that focuses on fundamental and applied research to promote environmentally sustainable and socially resilient cities. The journal welcomes cross-cutting, multi-disciplinary research in various areas, including: 1. Smart cities and resilient environments; 2. Alternative/clean energy sources, energy distribution, distributed energy generation, and energy demand reduction/management; 3. Monitoring and improving air quality in built environment and cities (e.g., healthy built environment and air quality management); 4. Energy efficient, low/zero carbon, and green buildings/communities; 5. Climate change mitigation and adaptation in urban environments; 6. Green infrastructure and BMPs; 7. Environmental Footprint accounting and management; 8. Urban agriculture and forestry; 9. ICT, smart grid and intelligent infrastructure; 10. Urban design/planning, regulations, legislation, certification, economics, and policy; 11. Social aspects, impacts and resiliency of cities; 12. Behavior monitoring, analysis and change within urban communities; 13. Health monitoring and improvement; 14. Nexus issues related to sustainable cities and societies; 15. Smart city governance; 16. Decision Support Systems for trade-off and uncertainty analysis for improved management of cities and society; 17. Big data, machine learning, and artificial intelligence applications and case studies; 18. Critical infrastructure protection, including security, privacy, forensics, and reliability issues of cyber-physical systems. 19. Water footprint reduction and urban water distribution, harvesting, treatment, reuse and management; 20. Waste reduction and recycling; 21. Wastewater collection, treatment and recycling; 22. Smart, clean and healthy transportation systems and infrastructure;