Roadmap toward carbon neutrality in Pakistan: Policy challenges and strategic measures

Abstract

Stabilizing global mean temperature requires all countries to align with pathways that achieve carbon neutrality by the middle of the century. For late-industrializing economies, this objective is particularly demanding, since their energy demand and emissions continue to rise. This study provides a systematic assessment of Pakistan, a country ranked among the most climate-vulnerable globally and lacking a defined pathway to mid-century carbon neutrality. The analysis first establishes clear conceptual distinctions among carbon neutrality, net-zero greenhouse gases, and climate neutrality, terms that are often used interchangeably in international policy debates. Using a backcasting framework, we establish 2050 carbon neutrality as the target year and identify the intermediate stages required for convergence. The analysis integrates national energy and emissions data (2013−2023), international statistical reviews, and comparative trajectories from the European Union, the United States, and regional peer economies. The results outline a three-stage, four-step strategy that incorporates accelerated electrification, industrial decarbonization, renewable energy expansion, circular economy practices, and natural sequestration. Our findings demonstrate that a late peaking (≈2030) can still converge to carbon neutrality by mid-century, provided that policy alignment and investment mobilization occur within the next decade. This framework informs transition strategies across similarly placed economies.