Optimizing R&D governance to enhance carbon emission mitigation: A systemic approach to the "Solow Paradox" in China

Abstract

Building on the HK framework, this study examines the "Solow Paradox" between R&D inputs and carbon emissions (CE) in China. We derive a production growth function with a mismatch coefficient from a multisector equilibrium model and use an extendable environmental impact assessment model to investigate the effects of total factor productivity, output shares, and factor allocation on CE. Our findings reveal the following: (1) R&D element mismatches in China are alleviating, with narrowing provincial disparities; (2) mismatches create a 7.606%-11.745% gap between actual and potential R&D outputs; (3) the R&D "Solow Paradox" results in CE reductions falling 1.696%-3.602% short of ideal, with a potential annual CE reduction increase of 344.899 million tons if corrected; and (4) ineffective substitution of traditional factors and an imbalanced R&D input structure contribute to regional CE change heterogeneity. While technological advancement is crucial, focusing solely on R&D investment quantity and speed is insufficient under resource constraints. Enhancing R&D investment efficiency and quality and correcting structural and spatial mismatches to optimize existing resources represents a more pragmatic path to achieving dual-carbon goals through front-end R&D element configuration.