Estimating and classifying urban carbon budget based on land use intensity with regulatory strategies developing

IF 12 1区工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY

Sustainable Cities and Society Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI:10.1016/j.scs.2025.106854

Li-tzu Yu, Cing Chang, Tzu-Ping Lin

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study develops an integrated framework to evaluate urban carbon emissions based on land-use intensity. Using Taipei City as a case study, the research employs a 100 × 100 meter high-resolution grid to quantify operational carbon, embodied carbon, and carbon sequestration. Key spatial indicators including Floor Area Ratio (FAR), Building Coverage Ratio (BCR), and Green Coverage Ratio (GCR) are analyzed through regression to identify their influence on carbon emissions. Results indicate that FAR is the most influential variable, enabling the construction of simplified linear and polynomial models for emission estimation. The study further applies a group mean method and quantile binning to classify carbon intensity into 10 levels, which are aggregated into 5 urban land-use intensity types. Scenario simulations show that enhancing green coverage and installing rooftop photovoltaics could reduce approximately 50,000 and 1.5 million tCO₂e annually, respectively. The proposed methodology provides a scalable and operable urban carbon governance model, offering a scientific basis for implementing carbon-based development intensity control and emission quota allocation in future urban planning.

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基于土地利用强度的城市碳预算估算与分类

本研究建立了基于土地利用强度的城市碳排放综合评估框架。本研究以台北市为例，采用100 × 100公尺高解析度网格，量化营运碳、隐含碳与固碳。通过回归分析建筑容积率（FAR）、建筑覆盖率（BCR）和绿色覆盖率（GCR）等关键空间指标对碳排放的影响。结果表明，FAR是影响最大的变量，可以构建简化的线性和多项式模型进行排放估计。本研究进一步运用群均值法和分位数分组法将碳强度划分为10个等级，并将其汇总为5种城市土地利用强度类型。情景模拟显示，增加绿色覆盖和安装屋顶光伏每年可分别减少约50,000和150万tCO₂e。提出的方法提供了可扩展、可操作的城市碳治理模式，为未来城市规划实施碳基发展强度控制和排放配额分配提供了科学依据。

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来源期刊

Sustainable Cities and Society Social Sciences-Geography, Planning and Development

CiteScore

22.00

自引率

13.70%

发文量

810

审稿时长

27 days

期刊介绍： Sustainable Cities and Society (SCS) is an international journal that focuses on fundamental and applied research to promote environmentally sustainable and socially resilient cities. The journal welcomes cross-cutting, multi-disciplinary research in various areas, including: 1. Smart cities and resilient environments; 2. Alternative/clean energy sources, energy distribution, distributed energy generation, and energy demand reduction/management; 3. Monitoring and improving air quality in built environment and cities (e.g., healthy built environment and air quality management); 4. Energy efficient, low/zero carbon, and green buildings/communities; 5. Climate change mitigation and adaptation in urban environments; 6. Green infrastructure and BMPs; 7. Environmental Footprint accounting and management; 8. Urban agriculture and forestry; 9. ICT, smart grid and intelligent infrastructure; 10. Urban design/planning, regulations, legislation, certification, economics, and policy; 11. Social aspects, impacts and resiliency of cities; 12. Behavior monitoring, analysis and change within urban communities; 13. Health monitoring and improvement; 14. Nexus issues related to sustainable cities and societies; 15. Smart city governance; 16. Decision Support Systems for trade-off and uncertainty analysis for improved management of cities and society; 17. Big data, machine learning, and artificial intelligence applications and case studies; 18. Critical infrastructure protection, including security, privacy, forensics, and reliability issues of cyber-physical systems. 19. Water footprint reduction and urban water distribution, harvesting, treatment, reuse and management; 20. Waste reduction and recycling; 21. Wastewater collection, treatment and recycling; 22. Smart, clean and healthy transportation systems and infrastructure;