Social security and economic resilience - A new structural economics perspective

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy Pub Date : 2025-09-26 DOI:10.1016/j.eap.2025.09.026

Jennhae Liou , Zeyan Jiao , Kongde Wei , Yinghao Peng

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Abstract

From the perspective of new structural economics, we explore the relationship between social security and economic resilience. Theoretical analysis reveals that, constrained by factor endowments and their structure, social security expenditures exert directionally heterogeneous impacts on economic resilience across different stages of economic development. Empirical findings indicate that, during the sample period, social security expenditures are detrimental to the improvement of economic resilience. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the positive effect of social security expenditures on economic resilience in eastern regions is stronger than in central and western regions. Furthermore, as the level of economic development rises, the impact of social security expenditures on economic resilience presents a positive U-shaped curvilinear relationship. Results of the threshold effect analysis demonstrate that when per capita GDP reaches 32,431.33 yuan, the impact of social security expenditures on economic resilience shifts from negative to positive. Finally, further research reveals that deviations from the optimal level of social security expenditures exert a significantly negative impact on economic resilience.

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社会保障与经济弹性——结构经济学的新视角

本文从新结构经济学的视角出发，探讨了社会保障与经济弹性的关系。理论分析表明，在要素禀赋及其结构的约束下，社会保障支出对经济弹性的影响在经济发展的不同阶段具有方向性异质性。实证结果表明，在样本期内，社会保障支出不利于经济弹性的提高。异质性分析表明，东部地区社会保障支出对经济弹性的正向影响强于中西部地区。此外，随着经济发展水平的提高，社会保障支出对经济弹性的影响呈正u型曲线关系。阈值效应分析结果表明，当人均GDP达到32431.33元时，社会保障支出对经济弹性的影响由负向正转变。最后，进一步的研究表明，偏离最优社会保障支出水平对经济弹性产生显著的负向影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Economic Analysis and Policy ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

9.80

自引率

9.20%

发文量

231

审稿时长

93 days

期刊介绍： Economic Analysis and Policy (established 1970) publishes articles from all branches of economics with a particular focus on research, theoretical and applied, which has strong policy relevance. The journal also publishes survey articles and empirical replications on key policy issues. Authors are expected to highlight the main insights in a non-technical introduction and in the conclusion.