Maturity mismatch and disinvestment as transmission mechanisms: Linking economic policy uncertainty to firm performance

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论 Pub Date : 2025-09-28 DOI:10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102565

Lifang Hu

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Since the beginning of the 21st century, the global economic and political landscape has become ever-changing, leading to rising economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in China. Utilizing indicators of macro EPU and firm perception of EPU, this study analyzes panel data from Chinese A-share listed firms (2007–2022) to investigate how EPU affects firm performance. The research findings demonstrate that EPU negatively affects firm performance primarily through maturity mismatch and disinvestment. Macro-level economic policy uncertainty shapes micro-level firm perceptions and strategic responses. Furthermore, the negative impact of EPU is more pronounced for firms operating in highly concentrated industries, as well as for risk-preferred firms, non-SOEs, cross-border firms during periods of Sino–US trade friction, and decline-stage firms. Lastly, this study recommends that government agencies prioritize continuity, predictability, and transparency in implementation of economic policies. To build resilience when EPU is rising, firms should leverage information-driven strategy, optimize debt–asset structure, and enhance competitiveness.

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期限错配和撤资作为传导机制：将经济政策不确定性与企业绩效联系起来

进入21世纪以来，全球经济和政治格局不断变化，导致中国经济政策不确定性上升。本研究利用宏观环境绩效指标和企业环境绩效感知指标，分析2007-2022年中国a股上市公司面板数据，探讨环境绩效对企业绩效的影响。研究发现，EPU主要通过期限错配和撤资对企业绩效产生负向影响。宏观经济政策的不确定性塑造了微观层面的企业认知和战略反应。此外，对于高度集中行业的企业、偏好风险的企业、非国有企业、中美贸易摩擦期间的跨境企业以及处于衰退阶段的企业，EPU的负面影响更为明显。最后，本研究建议政府机构在实施经济政策时优先考虑连续性、可预测性和透明度。在EPU上升的情况下，企业应利用信息驱动战略，优化债务-资产结构，增强竞争力。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

中国经济评论 ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

10.60

自引率

4.40%

发文量

380

期刊介绍： The China Economic Review publishes original works of scholarship which add to the knowledge of the economy of China and to economies as a discipline. We seek, in particular, papers dealing with policy, performance and institutional change. Empirical papers normally use a formal model, a data set, and standard statistical techniques. Submissions are subjected to double-blind peer review.