How does the penetration of new energy vehicles affect global energy security? Empirical evidence from multiple countries

Abstract

In the context of global Energy Security (ES) challenges, New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) have garnered significant attention as a pivotal technology for catalyzing the energy transition, fortifying ES, and curtailing reliance on fossil fuels. However, the specific impact of New Energy Vehicle Penetration (NEVP) on ES and the underlying mechanisms remains underexplored. Using panel data from 45 countries between 2010 and 2022, this study employs a two-way fixed effects model, a random forest model, a spatial Durbin model, and a threshold effect system analysis to examine the impact of NEVP on ES. The results show: (1) NEVP significantly improves national ES, with results remaining robust after robustness and endogeneity tests; (2) Energy transition, technological innovation, and charging infrastructure play important mediating roles; (3) NEVP exhibits a “siphoning effect,” generating negative spatial spillover effects on neighboring countries’ ES; (4) The positive impact on ES is significant when NEVP is below 5.8%, but diminishing returns occur beyond this threshold due to grid pressure and infrastructure bottlenecks; (5) In developing countries, NEVP has a significantly stronger impact on ES compared to developed countries; Hybrid Energy Vehicles (HEV) have a stronger effect on ES than Battery Energy vehicles (BEV). Based on these findings, the study recommends that governments promote NEV adoption, strengthen infrastructure, support technological localization and green innovation, and implement differentiated policies to enhance ES and avoid diminishing returns.