Adaptive strategies to enhance resilience in the global oil trade network

Abstract

The global oil trade network (GOTN) is highly interconnected and geographically concentrated, which makes it vulnerable to disruption risks such as extreme weather or geopolitical conflicts. However, certain countries demonstrate higher resilience when facing such risks. Therefore, this study aims to identify the key determinants of GOTN resilience and examine how they contribute to its enhancement. A resilience simulation model is developed using the susceptible-infected-susceptible framework and risk propagation dynamics in complex networks to simulate the impact of adaptive behaviors on GOTN resilience under risk shocks. The research results indicate that: (1) Adaptive behavior based on edge rewiring strategies can mitigate risk propagation in the GOTN under risk shocks. (2) Adaptive behavior changes the GOTN's topological properties, transforming tightly clustered trade relations into more dispersed configurations. (3) Higher probability of severing trade ties with risk-affected countries can not only protect certain trading countries but also enable those impacted to recover more quickly during the risk propagation, thereby strengthening the network resilience. (4) Reducing reliance on trading countries through measures such as supply diversification can mitigate the global risk propagation, which is critical for GOTN resilience. Our research emphasizes the priority of flexible mechanisms for rapid trade relationship adjustments in policy making, particularly during crisis periods.