Historic trends and future projections of the prevalence of adult excess weight in Scotland, 2003 to 2040: A modelling study

IF 3.2 3区医学 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

Public Health Pub Date : 2025-10-07 DOI:10.1016/j.puhe.2025.105981

Robby De Pauw , Fatim Lakha , Eilidh Fletcher , Diane L. Stockton , Emma Baird , Suzanne Connolly , Brecht Devleesschauwer , Grant M.A. Wyper

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Objectives

The prevalence of excess weight in Scotland is higher than other UK nations and amongst the highest when compared with European Union countries. We aimed to use historic data to project estimates of the prevalence of excess weight in Scotland using Bayesian age-period-cohort modelling.

Study design

A Bayesian age-period-cohort modelling study.

Methods

Interviewer-validated height and weight measurements were obtained from the Scottish Health Survey (2003–2019) to calculate body mass index (BMI). Relevant socio-demographic attributes were sourced to contribute to modelling and results stratification. Study outcomes were defined as overweight (BMI ≥25 kg/m²) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m²). We estimated historic trends in study outcomes by sex and age-group, and projected future trends to 2040, using Bayesian hierarchical age-period-cohort modelling.

Results

In 2040, we estimate 3.3 million adult cases of overweight, of which 1.6 million are cases of obesity. Projections were more pronounced for obesity, compared to overweight, with an additional 66,000 male cases and 175,000 female cases projected between 2019 and 2040. Between 2003 and 2019, the proportion of male and female cases of both overweight and obesity aged 65 years and above have increased, a trend projected to further intensify as we move towards 2040.

Conclusions

Left unaddressed, we estimate a substantial increase in adult excess weight in Scotland by 2040, particularly for females, compounded by increases in obesity and in the proportion of older cases. These findings are a warning signal of future adverse population health impacts and healthcare service sustainability pressures. Projections are not inevitable and underscore the need to accelerate progress on implementing preventative measures to address the food environment, and on further development of weight management and support services, to improve Scotland's population health.

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2003年至2040年苏格兰成人超重流行率的历史趋势和未来预测：一项模型研究。

目的：苏格兰超重的患病率高于其他英国国家，与欧盟国家相比也是最高的。我们的目的是使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型，利用历史数据对苏格兰超重患病率进行项目估计。研究设计：贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型研究。方法：从苏格兰健康调查（2003-2019）中获得访谈者验证的身高和体重测量值，以计算体重指数（BMI）。相关的社会人口统计属性被用于建模和结果分层。研究结果定义为超重（BMI≥25 kg/m2）和肥胖（BMI≥30 kg/m2）。我们按性别和年龄组估计了研究结果的历史趋势，并使用贝叶斯分层年龄-时期-队列模型预测了到2040年的未来趋势。结果：2040年，我们估计有330万成人超重病例，其中160万为肥胖病例。与超重相比，肥胖的预测更为明显，预计2019年至2040年期间将增加6.6万例男性病例和17.5万例女性病例。2003年至2019年期间，65岁及以上男性和女性超重和肥胖病例的比例有所增加，随着我们迈向2040年，这一趋势预计将进一步加剧。结论：如果不解决这个问题，我们估计到2040年苏格兰成年人超重将大幅增加，尤其是女性，同时肥胖和老年病例比例也会增加。这些发现是对未来不利人口健康影响和卫生保健服务可持续性压力的警告信号。预测并非不可避免，并强调需要加快在执行预防措施方面取得进展，以解决粮食环境问题，并进一步发展体重管理和支助服务，以改善苏格兰人口健康。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Public Health 医学-公共卫生、环境卫生与职业卫生

CiteScore

7.60

自引率

0.00%

发文量

280

审稿时长

37 days

期刊介绍： Public Health is an international, multidisciplinary peer-reviewed journal. It publishes original papers, reviews and short reports on all aspects of the science, philosophy, and practice of public health.