Resource Availability and Habitat Quality Drive Time-Lag Effects in High-Altitude Ungulate Distribution.

Abstract

Environmental factors, including climatic and habitat conditions, not only critically sustain ecosystem functioning and community stability but also serve as key determinants of species distributions. Research on the instant effects of environmental factors impacts remains limited. Although traditional methods, such as species distribution model, are commonly applied to assess environmental effects, they frequently overlook interspecific interactions that may determine distribution patterns. In this study, we employed a joint species distribution model and a generalized additive model to analyze the lagged responses of 2022-2023 geographic distribution patterns to historical habitat conditions (2001-2019) in four widespread high-elevation ungulates (Equus kiang, Pantholops hodgsonii, Procapra picticaudata, and Bos mutus) on the Tibetan Plateau, defining this delayed response of animal distributions to environmental changes as the distribution lag effect (DLE). Our analysis revealed that while climate strongly influenced species distributions, habitat change drove most observed delays in distribution responses. In terms of community ecology, dispersed communities exhibited shorter time lags than concentrated groups. Analyses of lag duration revealed a 5-6-year DLE in high-altitude ungulate distributions. Our results provide valuable insights into sustainable alpine steppe management by highlighting the importance of maintaining habitat quality and mitigating resource competition over time. Furthermore, it offers guidance for the long-term conservation of high-altitude ungulate species.