Optimising housing typology distributions for multi-hazard loss reductions in resource-constrained settings.

Abstract

Disaster loss estimations are valuable risk reduction tools but rarely consider the loss trade-offs when a building stock is subjected to multi-hazard impacts. Here, we developed an approach to simulate direct economic losses of a housing stock and explore loss reduction across scenarios of housing typology distributions. We used multi-objective optimisation to model wind and seismic losses in Itbayat, Batanes, Philippines. Using Monte Carlo simulation, 11,628 housing stock scenarios were modelled under two cases of paired extreme hazard intensity thresholds, identifying Pareto optimal solutions that were further analysed against a socio-technical framework. We show that the current housing stock distribution can sustain lower multi-hazard losses by achieving more optimal combinations of lightweight and reinforced concrete typologies. However, transitioning to this desired stock distribution becomes a trade-off of not just wind-seismic loss reductions but also of socio-technical considerations such as households' risk perceptions. Our study advances risk reduction strategies by streamlining loss estimations to inform collective and safer multi-hazard construction practices.