Employee Turnover Effects of the 2018–2019 United States Federal Government Shutdown

Abstract

As shutdowns have increased in frequency and length for the US federal government, such dysfunction may impact the federal government's ability to retain talent. In December of 2018 through January of 2019, the US federal government and its workforce endured the longest shutdown in its history. However, we know little about that shutdown's effects on the US federal civil service labor market. In this paper, we examine the intervening impact of the 2018–2019 government shutdown on personnel separations. Through the collection of data sources, we assess the shutdown's impact using two-way fixed effects difference-in-differences models of both whether an agency was shut down and whether the percentage of workers who were temporarily furloughed in an agency could adequately capture the “intensity” of that shutdown. Results indicate that the 2019 shutdown impacted separations and that it did so in distinct ways across different cohorts of employees in affected agencies. This work helps inform those who study or practice strategic workforce development about the impacts of political events on labor dynamics.