Jeffrey J. Love, Greg M. Lucas, Anna Kelbert, E. Joshua Rigler, Paul A. Bedrosian, Neesha R. Schnepf
{"title":"Mapping a Carrington Storm","authors":"Jeffrey J. Love, Greg M. Lucas, Anna Kelbert, E. Joshua Rigler, Paul A. Bedrosian, Neesha R. Schnepf","doi":"10.1029/2025gl116835","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"A map is presented of median 1-min-resolution peak geoelectric-field strength across the United States as would be induced by magnetic storms as intense as the 2 September 1859 Carrington storm. The map is constructed from two data sets: Magnetometer time series from 22 ground-based observatories recording 40 magnetic storms, and surface impedance tensors derived from magnetotelluric measurements acquired at 1616 survey sites across the contiguous United States. Carrington-class storm geoelectric fields are likely to be very strong in the United States East and Midwest; <span data-altimg=\"/cms/asset/94e58ab7-3e67-41a1-be32-fcb1e4e24d9b/grl71264-math-0001.png\"></span><mjx-container ctxtmenu_counter=\"165\" ctxtmenu_oldtabindex=\"1\" jax=\"CHTML\" role=\"application\" sre-explorer- style=\"font-size: 103%; position: relative;\" tabindex=\"0\"><mjx-math aria-hidden=\"true\" location=\"graphic/grl71264-math-0001.png\"><mjx-semantics><mjx-mrow data-semantic-children=\"2,1\" data-semantic-content=\"0\" data-semantic- data-semantic-role=\"inequality\" data-semantic-speech=\"greater than 5.00\" data-semantic-type=\"relseq\"><mjx-mrow data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\"3\" data-semantic-role=\"unknown\" data-semantic-type=\"empty\"></mjx-mrow><mjx-mo data-semantic- data-semantic-operator=\"relseq,>\" data-semantic-parent=\"3\" data-semantic-role=\"inequality\" data-semantic-type=\"relation\" rspace=\"5\" space=\"5\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mo><mjx-mn data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"normal\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\"3\" data-semantic-role=\"float\" data-semantic-type=\"number\"><mjx-c></mjx-c><mjx-c></mjx-c><mjx-c></mjx-c><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mn></mjx-mrow></mjx-semantics></mjx-math><mjx-assistive-mml display=\"inline\" unselectable=\"on\"><math altimg=\"urn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl71264:grl71264-math-0001\" display=\"inline\" location=\"graphic/grl71264-math-0001.png\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\"><semantics><mrow data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-children=\"2,1\" data-semantic-content=\"0\" data-semantic-role=\"inequality\" data-semantic-speech=\"greater than 5.00\" data-semantic-type=\"relseq\"><mrow data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-parent=\"3\" data-semantic-role=\"unknown\" data-semantic-type=\"empty\"></mrow><mo data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-operator=\"relseq,>\" data-semantic-parent=\"3\" data-semantic-role=\"inequality\" data-semantic-type=\"relation\">></mo><mn data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"normal\" data-semantic-parent=\"3\" data-semantic-role=\"float\" data-semantic-type=\"number\">5.00</mn></mrow>${ >} 5.00$</annotation></semantics></math></mjx-assistive-mml></mjx-container> V/km at many places. In Virginia, strengths would likely range from 30.30 V/km, with a 68% confidence interval of [19.44,47.20] V/km, to as low as 0.05 [0.03,0.07] V/km. Comparison of model geopotentials with those measured on 30 long lines, indicates errors of about 18%. A Carrington-class storm would likely induce geoelectric fields with strengths 55% greater than for the 13–14 March 1989 storm.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6000,"publicationDate":"2025-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Geophysical Research Letters","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl116835","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
A map is presented of median 1-min-resolution peak geoelectric-field strength across the United States as would be induced by magnetic storms as intense as the 2 September 1859 Carrington storm. The map is constructed from two data sets: Magnetometer time series from 22 ground-based observatories recording 40 magnetic storms, and surface impedance tensors derived from magnetotelluric measurements acquired at 1616 survey sites across the contiguous United States. Carrington-class storm geoelectric fields are likely to be very strong in the United States East and Midwest; V/km at many places. In Virginia, strengths would likely range from 30.30 V/km, with a 68% confidence interval of [19.44,47.20] V/km, to as low as 0.05 [0.03,0.07] V/km. Comparison of model geopotentials with those measured on 30 long lines, indicates errors of about 18%. A Carrington-class storm would likely induce geoelectric fields with strengths 55% greater than for the 13–14 March 1989 storm.
期刊介绍:
Geophysical Research Letters (GRL) publishes high-impact, innovative, and timely research on major scientific advances in all the major geoscience disciplines. Papers are communications-length articles and should have broad and immediate implications in their discipline or across the geosciences. GRLmaintains the fastest turn-around of all high-impact publications in the geosciences and works closely with authors to ensure broad visibility of top papers.