Understanding the migratory response to hurricanes and tropical storms in the USA.

Abstract

The adverse effects of climate change will be worse in some locations than in others, raising the possibility that migration from more severely impacted areas to less impacted areas will reduce future damages. Assessing whether such migration is already occurring can inform our understanding of future responses to climate change. Using data on the paths of all Atlantic basin hurricanes and tropical storms from 1992 to 2017, we study whether outmigration from US counties increases after a storm. On average, storms are not followed by outmigration, and total population-weighted exposure to storms increases over the sample period. Very destructive storms are followed by outmigration, though often to other high-risk counties. Counties with high economic activity see net in-migration after a storm. Given existing policies and incentives, the economic and social benefits of high-risk areas currently appear to outweigh the incentive to reduce exposure to future storms by relocating across counties.