Temporal Trends and Spatial Analysis of Self-Reported Autism Spectrum Disorder in Brazil: A Decade of School Census Insights (2014-2023).

Revista brasileira de psiquiatria (Sao Paulo, Brazil : 1999) Pub Date : 2025-10-05 DOI:10.47626/1516-4446-2025-4242

Luís Gabriel de Sousa Fontenele, Gabriel Stumpf Bastos Amorim, Petrone Bandeira Dos Santos, Rykelme Cavalcante Martins, Vitor Expedito Alves Ribeiro, Marcos Henrick Fernandes Almeida, Giuliano da Paz Oliveira

{"title":"Temporal Trends and Spatial Analysis of Self-Reported Autism Spectrum Disorder in Brazil: A Decade of School Census Insights (2014-2023).","authors":"Luís Gabriel de Sousa Fontenele, Gabriel Stumpf Bastos Amorim, Petrone Bandeira Dos Santos, Rykelme Cavalcante Martins, Vitor Expedito Alves Ribeiro, Marcos Henrick Fernandes Almeida, Giuliano da Paz Oliveira","doi":"10.47626/1516-4446-2025-4242","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Background: Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a growing neurodevelopmental condition worldwide. Data addressing in Brazil are scarce and identifying regional differences in ASD reporting is crucial for shaping policies that ensure equity and accessibility.Aim: Analyze the temporal and spatial trends of children and adolescents reporting ASD diagnosis at school enrollment in Brazil between 2014 and 2023.Methods: Ecological study that employed time-series (Mann-Kendall test with Hamed-Rao modification) and spatial analyses (Global Moran's I and Local Indicators of Spatial Association[LISA]). Enrollment data (2014-2023) were obtained from the public synopses of the Brazilian School Census, including self-reported ASD.Results: Findings revealed a national increase trend in reported ASD cases from 8.23 to 134.49 per 10,000 enrollments(p>0.001; slope≈11.18). Trends of states were consistently upward(Tau=1, p>0.001) except in São Paulo(Tau=0.78, p=0.002). Acre saw the largest rise, São Paulo the smallest. Moran's I rose from 0.1235 to 0.3233(p=0.001), indicating stronger spatial clustering, with LISA identifying persistent South/Southeast clusters and emerging Northeast clusters.Conclusions: Reported ASD cases rose steeply nationally (2014-2023), with most states trending upward. Spatial clustering strengthened (Moran's I increase); LISA showed persistent South/Southeast and emerging Northeast clusters, demanding region-targeted policies and integrated care.","PeriodicalId":520767,"journal":{"name":"Revista brasileira de psiquiatria (Sao Paulo, Brazil : 1999)","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2025-10-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Revista brasileira de psiquiatria (Sao Paulo, Brazil : 1999)","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.47626/1516-4446-2025-4242","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background: Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a growing neurodevelopmental condition worldwide. Data addressing in Brazil are scarce and identifying regional differences in ASD reporting is crucial for shaping policies that ensure equity and accessibility.

Aim: Analyze the temporal and spatial trends of children and adolescents reporting ASD diagnosis at school enrollment in Brazil between 2014 and 2023.

Methods: Ecological study that employed time-series (Mann-Kendall test with Hamed-Rao modification) and spatial analyses (Global Moran's I and Local Indicators of Spatial Association[LISA]). Enrollment data (2014-2023) were obtained from the public synopses of the Brazilian School Census, including self-reported ASD.

Results: Findings revealed a national increase trend in reported ASD cases from 8.23 to 134.49 per 10,000 enrollments(p>0.001; slope≈11.18). Trends of states were consistently upward(Tau=1, p>0.001) except in São Paulo(Tau=0.78, p=0.002). Acre saw the largest rise, São Paulo the smallest. Moran's I rose from 0.1235 to 0.3233(p=0.001), indicating stronger spatial clustering, with LISA identifying persistent South/Southeast clusters and emerging Northeast clusters.

Conclusions: Reported ASD cases rose steeply nationally (2014-2023), with most states trending upward. Spatial clustering strengthened (Moran's I increase); LISA showed persistent South/Southeast and emerging Northeast clusters, demanding region-targeted policies and integrated care.

查看原文本刊更多论文

巴西自报告自闭症谱系障碍的时间趋势和空间分析：十年的学校人口普查见解（2014-2023）。

背景：自闭症谱系障碍（ASD）是一种日益严重的神经发育疾病。巴西的数据处理很少，确定ASD报告的区域差异对于制定确保公平和可及性的政策至关重要。目的：分析2014 - 2023年巴西入学报告ASD诊断的儿童和青少年的时空趋势。方法：采用时间序列（Mann-Kendall检验和Hamed-Rao修正）和空间分析（Global Moran’s I和Local Indicators of spatial Association[LISA]）进行生态学研究。2014-2023年的入学数据来自巴西学校普查的公开资料，包括自我报告的ASD。结果：研究结果显示，在全国范围内，ASD病例报告呈上升趋势，从每10,000名登记患者中8.23例增加到134.49例（p < 0.001；斜率≈11.18）。除圣保罗州（Tau=0.78, p=0.002）外，其他州的趋势均呈上升趋势（Tau=1, p < 0.001）。Acre的涨幅最大，圣保罗的涨幅最小。Moran’s I从0.1235上升到0.3233(p=0.001)，表明空间集聚性较强，LISA识别出持续的南/东南集群和新兴的东北集群。结论：报告的ASD病例在全国范围内急剧上升（2014-2023），大多数州呈上升趋势。空间聚类增强（Moran’s I增大）；LISA表现出持续的南/东南和新兴的东北集群，需要有针对性的区域政策和综合护理。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Revista brasileira de psiquiatria (Sao Paulo, Brazil : 1999)

自引率

0.00%

发文量