Global bifurcation dynamics in an SIRS model with nonlinear incidence and double exposure.

Abstract

Mathematical modeling is essential for understanding infectious disease dynamics and guiding public health strategies. We study the global dynamics of a susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) model with a generalized nonlinear incidence function, revealing a rich array of bifurcation phenomena, including saddle-node, cusp, forward and backward bifurcations, Bogdanov-Takens bifurcations, saddle-node bifurcation of limit cycles, subcritical and supercritical Hopf bifurcations, generalized Hopf bifurcations, homoclinic and degenerate homoclinic bifurcations, as well as isola bifurcation. Using normal form theory, we show that the Hopf bifurcation reaches codimension three, resulting in up to three small-amplitude limit cycles. The involvement of the recovered population enables coexistence of these limit cycles, leading to bistable and tristable dynamics. We employ a one-step transformation method to analyze codimension two and three Bogdanov-Takens bifurcations, confirming a maximum codimension of three. In particular, we identify isolas of limit cycles in an SIRS model involving double exposure, introducing a mechanism for generating limit cycles centered on the isola. The findings may have important public health implications, highlighting how nonlinearities in transmission and immunity can produce recurrent outbreaks or persistent infection despite interventions. The existence of multiple limit cycles suggests that small changes in transmission rates or immune response could cause abrupt shifts in outbreak patterns, emphasizing the need for adaptive and flexible intervention strategies.