{"title":"Children's developing ability to predict novel outcomes from variability information.","authors":"Elizabeth Lapidow, Mariel Goddu, Caren M Walker","doi":"10.1037/dev0002082","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Making abstract inferences from specific instances is a critical cognitive ability. Here, we examine children's capacity to use these inferences to reason beyond the evidence they observe. In three experiments, participants (<i>N</i> = 161, 46% female, 43% White) observed various colored balls randomly drawn from two opaque boxes and were asked to choose which box was more likely to contain a novel-colored ball. Younger preschoolers (<i>M</i><sub>age</sub> = 40.12 months, Experiment 1) chose the container that produced differently colored balls over one that produced balls of a single color, suggesting they made inferences about second-order characteristics (variability vs. uniformity), and used this to make novel predictions. When presented with more subtle contrasts (low- vs. high-variability, Experiments 2 and 3), older (<i>M</i><sub>age</sub> = 55.53 months), but not younger preschoolers, continued to make adult-like predictions, suggesting that these second-order inferences increase in sophistication during early childhood. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA, all rights reserved).</p>","PeriodicalId":48464,"journal":{"name":"Developmental Psychology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1000,"publicationDate":"2025-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Developmental Psychology","FirstCategoryId":"102","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1037/dev0002082","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"PSYCHOLOGY, DEVELOPMENTAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Making abstract inferences from specific instances is a critical cognitive ability. Here, we examine children's capacity to use these inferences to reason beyond the evidence they observe. In three experiments, participants (N = 161, 46% female, 43% White) observed various colored balls randomly drawn from two opaque boxes and were asked to choose which box was more likely to contain a novel-colored ball. Younger preschoolers (Mage = 40.12 months, Experiment 1) chose the container that produced differently colored balls over one that produced balls of a single color, suggesting they made inferences about second-order characteristics (variability vs. uniformity), and used this to make novel predictions. When presented with more subtle contrasts (low- vs. high-variability, Experiments 2 and 3), older (Mage = 55.53 months), but not younger preschoolers, continued to make adult-like predictions, suggesting that these second-order inferences increase in sophistication during early childhood. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA, all rights reserved).
期刊介绍：
Developmental Psychology ® publishes articles that significantly advance knowledge and theory about development across the life span. The journal focuses on seminal empirical contributions. The journal occasionally publishes exceptionally strong scholarly reviews and theoretical or methodological articles. Studies of any aspect of psychological development are appropriate, as are studies of the biological, social, and cultural factors that affect development. The journal welcomes not only laboratory-based experimental studies but studies employing other rigorous methodologies, such as ethnographies, field research, and secondary analyses of large data sets. We especially seek submissions in new areas of inquiry and submissions that will address contradictory findings or controversies in the field as well as the generalizability of extant findings in new populations. Although most articles in this journal address human development, studies of other species are appropriate if they have important implications for human development. Submissions can consist of single manuscripts, proposed sections, or short reports.
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